Messaging From The Labour Market

July 26, 2024 |Michael Capobianco
Comfort on inflation should give the Fed room to shift its focus to the goal of full employment. With labor market data pointing in different directions, let’s look at how this all fits into the Fed’s thinking about future interest rate cuts. In 1977...
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Is This A Trend Reversal ?

July 19, 2024 |Michael Capobianco
Large-cap tech stocks have dominated U.S. equity performance this year, but recently the rest of the market has been trying to take the baton. Let’s discuss the main factors needed to make a clean handoff. The question facing the U.S. equity market is...
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Dividends and Earnings Tell The Entire Story

July 12, 2024 |Michael Capobianco
Good Morning, While AI and the Magnificent 7 have obvious contributors to this bull market, today we will spotlight two other trends with a clear impact on portfolio performance. The S&P 500 continues to surge in 2024 despite numerous concerns, and narrow...
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Benefits Of Human Longevity

June 28, 2024 |Michael Capobianco
We are going to have a bit of a change of pace this week. Our usually writings centre on financial markets and the economy at large. Today we will examine the efforts made through science to extent longevity, and what this could mean for our society....
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Reasons Behind The Unbalanced Rally

June 22, 2024 |Michael Capobianco
While the U.S. stock market rally continues its impressive run, several factors make for a more toned-down backdrop. Today we’ll discuss drivers of the rally and how to position equity portfolios. The S&P 500 has continued to surge amid rather low volatility...
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Recession Scorecard Update

June 14, 2024 |Michael Capobianco
Our U.S. Recession Scorecard saw an important negative shift in May, when a third of seven leading indicators was re-rated from cautionary yellow to recessionary red. A fourth may undergo a similar shift in the coming months. Equity investors should take...
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Canadian Flag

Has Canada Hit a Wall ?

June 08, 2024 |Michael Capobianco
The BoC lowered its policy rate, and it will likely continue to cut rates sooner and faster than the Fed. This may not be a passing fad given Canada’s relatively high debt load and weaker productivity. Divergence between the Fed and other central banks...
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A Hard Battle That Is Yielding Results

May 31, 2024 |Michael Capobianco
Investors have become more confident that a “soft landing” is the most probable outcome over the next 12 months. We’ll provide an update on the macro environment and its implications for portfolios. The Global Economy The world economy remains in expansion...
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What The Bond Market Is Telling Us

May 24, 2024 |Michael Capobianco
The current yield curve inversion, a potential recession indicator, looks out of line with record equity markets and robust commodity pricing. Let’s examine some reasons investors are accepting lower yields on longer-maturity bonds. The relationship between...
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All That Glitters Is Not Gold

May 17, 2024 |Michael Capobianco
We had the opportunity to sit down with RBC Capital Markets, LLC Commodity Strategist Christopher Louney, to discuss the gold rally and explain how world events and policy shifts could impact its prospects. Christopher also gives his take on why gold...
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