Michael's Blog

While rising tides lift all boats – the amount risen depends on the boat ! Not only has the U.S. equity rally been uneven in 2025, the segment of the market that has dominated during this bull market cycle has been narrow and concentrated mainly in the...

Long-term economic trends have left the U.S. economy increasingly reliant on spending by upper-income households. Let’s unpack the potential implications for economic stability and Federal Reserve policymaking. In recent years, The U.S. has cut interest...

The Trump administration has made broad interpretations of existing legislative authority to make unilateral policy moves. Let’s examine how centralized decision-making raises concerns and the implications for the global economy. The Trump administration...

The U.S. Dollar has had a volatile year. Today we will examine reasons for this and the longer-term challenges ahead. After a sharp slide in first half of 2025, the Dollar has settled into a narrower range. Foreign demand for U.S. assets was more resilient...

Despite a second consecutive rate cut, a hawkish turn from the U.S. central bank this week supports the view that it is now on hold until at least next year. While that might have previously caused alarm, investors are content with the idea the Fed has...

Artificial intelligence is seldom out of the headlines in 2025, with defining developments coming one after another. Today we’ll examine where AI is today and how its promise is matched against technological, economic, and geopolitical challenges. In...

The U.S. Recession Scorecard created and maintained by our investment committee at RBC has historically been a very useful tool in its ability to decipher the state of the U.S. Economy. There could not be a more timely moment to revisit this. For those...

I have written somewhat regularly about the importance of emerging economies. Today we’ll examine this theme from the lens of globe trade & geo-politics. The geopolitical order continues to shift amid fracturing trade ties and high tariff levels, raising...

While U.S. tariffs revenue continues to rise, trade exemptions have softened the macro impact. As uncertainty looms and costs gradually pass through, balancing resilient corporate fundamentals against policy is the order of the day. The weighted average...