Michael's Blog

Oil has been rallying and that’s fueling an intriguing opportunity. Today we’ll examine what’s behind the Energy sector’s supply and demand dynamics, focusing on the risk from the Middle East conflict. The global oil sector is benefiting from improved...

Don’t fight the Fed” is one of the oldest Wall Street adages and for good reason. The U.S. central bank is an incredibly powerful institution that can exert influence on essentially any U.S. dollar-denominated asset. For all its power, though, the Fed...

Today we’ll focus on 2024 earnings: The union of the “haves and have nots” Full-year earnings growth trajectory is very important. Growth rates for the Magnificent 7 and non-Mag 7 stocks are expected to converge—a positive sign. But there are some lingering...

Today we’ll pause from our usual market analysis and talk a bit about perspective. Many times, investors find themselves focusing on what the press puts before them instead of concentrating on issues relevant to their goals. Let’s discuss why investment...

A growing chorus on Wall Street is warning a bubble may be forming in the U.S. stock market. But before thinking this AI-led rally could be too much of a good thing, investors should note some key differences vs. the Tech Bubble peak 24 years ago, along...

Despite the usual “wall of worry,” markets are currently inclined to embrace a risk-on bias, reassured by ongoing U.S. economic strength. Improving corporate fundamentals can lend support to risk-bearing assets, though valuations may already reflect a...

Good Morning, The Nikkei 225 just passed its record high reached 34 years ago, despite the Japanese economy being in recession. So what are the factors behind investors’ enthusiasm, despite the underwhelming macroeconomic backdrop ? How should investors...

Geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty are contributing to a murky economic outlook around supply chain disruptions—and their possible impact on inflation. Today we’ll examine the monetary policy landscape and the potential role of fixed income...

A year on from the collapse of several regional U.S. banks, a new fear emerges: mounting losses on real estate loans. Despite the hard realities, there’s also a fair dose of hyped exaggeration at play. The U.S. banking system is healthy and able to weather...