Michael's Blog

Hello, While pinpointing the actual start of a recession comes with the benefit of hindsight, there are unique trends that have historically coincided with the opening act of an economic contraction. Today we look at three indicators that can provide...

Good Morning, It looks like it’s back to basics for the U.S. House of Representatives and the clock is ticking. The stopgap funding deal keeping the government open expires in mid-November, leaving the chamber little time to select a speaker and pass...

Could higher oil prices make life more difficult for central banks? We examine the reasons behind the surge in oil prices, their prospects, and explore what impact the price surge could have on inflation. So far, the most direct impact has been felt on...

Good Morning, The recent rise in longer-term U.S. Treasury yields, despite an economic backdrop that looks supportive for bonds, has given rise to a range of theories. Today we’ll examine supply and demand forces in the bond market and what this could...