Capital Currents - November 2025

Build, Scale, Develop - Profit Optional?

November 21, 2025 |The Chieduch Group
In Today’s Note: We split the AI landscape into three groups: infrastructure builders, compute scalers, and AI application developers The infrastructure builders have been remarkably profitable this year, funded by unprecedented capital spending from...
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Capital Currents - October 2025

High Altitude Investing

October 23, 2025 |The Chieduch Group

Stock market valuations have risen to historically elevated levels this year, particularly in the tech-heavy U.S. market. We view investing in high valuation stocks much like high altitude mountain climbing in thin air: it’s not impossible to keep cl

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Fire and Fury at the Fed

Fire and Fury at the Fed

July 28, 2025 |Ryan Harder
In today’s note: Trump can’t fire Powell in theory but can in practice. Either way, Powell will be replaced by a Trump pick in May. A more “accommodative” Fed Chair will be yet another tailwind to push inflation higher, and watching the yield curve’s...
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The Half-Life of Money

The Half-Life of Money

June 24, 2025 |Ryan Harder
In this month’s note: Unspent or uninvested dollars decay over time – this gradual debasement is not a bug of the system, it’s the way it was designed Market prices are set not just by intrinsic value, but by scarcity Scarcity assets like gold provide...
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Section 899: A New Tax Threat to Global Investors

Section 899: A New Tax Threat to Global Investors

June 02, 2025 |Ryan Harder
Several clients have inquired about a little-noticed provision buried within the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA), which passed the U.S. House of Representatives on May 22nd and is now under Senate review. In this note we will explore the implications...
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The Yin-Yang of Effective Investing

The Yin-Yang of Effective Investing

May 26, 2025 |Ryan Harder
Why do our valued clients hear us talk about valuations so frequently? They have likely heard some variation of the below comments during investment strategy discussions over the past 6-12 months: It’s a great company and business model, but the valuation...
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Schrodinger’s Tariffs and the Nature of Uncertainty

Schrodinger’s Tariffs and the Nature of Uncertainty

April 21, 2025 |The Chieduch Group
In this month’s note: Markets can neither fully price in nor price out tariff risk Investors should see uncertainty as an opportunity, since uncertainty is the driving force behind long-term excess market returns Risk cannot be eliminated, but disciplined...
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Focusing on the forest

Focusing on the forest

March 14, 2025 |The Chieduch Group
As portfolio managers, our job is to make sure we’re on top of every development, policy change, rate cut, data release, and headline. We’ve certainly had plenty of those to keep track of in the last few weeks. Sweeping U.S. import tariffs were announced...
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Is the Trump Trade Over Already?

Is the Trump Trade Over Already?

February 27, 2025 |The Chieduch Group
The weeks that immediately followed a Republican sweep of the White House, Congress and Senate were met with a surge of optimism in markets: the S&P 500 climbed 5%, megacap tech stocks jumped, Bitcoin surged to an all-time high, and a variety of so-called...
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US Tariffs and the Myth of Energy Independence

US Tariffs and the Myth of Energy Independence

February 03, 2025 |The Chieduch Group
After months of speculation, the arrival of sweeping tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S. are now imminent (probably). The roller coaster of “will they won’t they” headlines is an important reminder to put far less weight on “reports” leaked by insiders...
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