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Capital Bulletin - September 2025
September 25, 2025 - Ryan ChieduchDespite a strong pullback in the spring, markets have now rebounded back near all-time highs, led largely by optimism surrounding AI-related growth. Although we agree that AI will revolutionize and disrupt multiple different sectors, the assumptions built in to many of these companies defy reason and are a source of increasing vulnerability for the US stock market.
Read moreCapital Bulletin - June 2025
June 2, 2025 - Ryan HarderSection 899 is part of the bill currently being considered by the U.S. senate. In this note we examine the intent and powers of this section of the proposed bill and explore the potential implications for Canadian investors.
Read moreCapital Bulletin – May 2025
May 7, 2025 - Ryan ChieduchImagine for a moment that you are the captain of a 19th century ship spending most of your life at sea without the benefit of modern meteorological technology. You’ve been given an opportunity to choose between one of two superpowers: to flawlessly predict every day of ideal weather, or to flawlessly predict every dangerous storm. Which would you choose? Clients who recall our recent discussion points or who have read our monthly newsletter over the last two quarters will know that our focus recently has been firmly on the latter – avoiding the storm and protecting on the downside. In the following three sections we’ll outline why we view avoidance of those storms as the key to long-term growth, and why stormy economic weather is the right time to bring in the sails and reach for the oars.
Read moreCapital Bulletin – April 2025
April 10, 2025 - Ryan ChieduchThis note is being written after the close on April 7th, which ostensibly saw a quiet day after stocks finished the day just modestly lower (in stark contrast to the turmoil of April 3 & 4). However, those closing levels are hiding a remarkable level of intraday volatility, including the largest single intraday swing since 2008 (which was catalyzed by an inaccurate tweet from an anonymous account that CNBC and other outlets reported as fact until the White House denied it). Much like a person flailing their arms after they’ve been knocked off balance, this price action is indicative of a global stock market struggling to find its footing. Unexpectedly severe tariff policy is undoubtedly the catalyst for this volatility, but in our view this is merely an acceleration of a larger shift in gl
Read moreDot-com déjà vu?
February 29, 2024 - Ryan ChieduchInvesting is by necessity a forward-looking exercise, so it’s natural for investors to fixate on the future, and in particular identifying unfolding trends and opportunities in the world of business. Without question the theme that has captured the attention of global investors in the past year has been the explosive growth of generative AI, and investors have apparently forgiven the tech sector for the painful drawdowns of 2022 and are now pushing the S&P 500 to new highs.
Read moreReflecting on 2023
January 11, 2024 - Ryan ChieduchAs we approach the end of 2023, we find ourselves looking back on markets that seem considerably more content than they were a year ago: equities are in the green, inflation rates have come down from their multi-decade highs, and higher starting yields protected most bonds from further losses this year.
Read moreEarnings Tailwind to Headwind
September 13, 2023 - Ryan ChieduchIt has been estimated that a third of all EPS (Earnings Per Share) growth for S&P500 over the past 20 years was due to lower interest and tax costs, and that’s without considering the demand/revenue impact that lower rates/taxes would have had. Unless...
Read moreBuy the Dip?
January 30, 2023 - Ryan ChieduchThe outlook for Tech investors is remains a grim one and buying the dip, with the underlying assumption that Tech is on sale could prove to be hazardous.
Read moreHappy New Year!
January 19, 2023 - Ryan ChieduchStarting with Q1, I expect the global economy to weaken in the first half but to recover in the second half. 2023 will likely be weak economically but improving later in the year and into 2024.
Read MoreQ4 2020 Quarterly Letter
January 28, 2021 - Ryan ChieduchA Historic Year for Markets We hope this letter finds you safe and healthy during these still-unprecedented times.
Q4 2020 Quarterly LetterTrust Reporting Requirements 2021
December 2, 2020 - Ryan ChieduchAre you an executor or a trustee? If so, you should be aware that the reporting requirements for certain trusts may be changing. As part of the 2018 Federal budget the government proposed changes to reporting requirements for trusts. The draft legislative...
Read MoreU.S. Corporate Profits at an all-time record high!?
November 25, 2020 - Ryan ChieduchReal GDP was unrevised at a 33.1% annual growth rate in Q3 – while this is great news in and of itself, the real news (as often is the case) was buried in the fine print – economy-wide corporate profits soared in the third quarter, rising 27.1% and hitting...
Read MoreDivided Government = Relief Rally
November 5, 2020 - Ryan ChieduchA sizeable rally is underway this week on the back of a relatively orderly election process in the U.S. Despite several states not being “called” yet, the broad expectation is that the election results will be finalized by this weekend or early next week...
Read MoreIs Stimulus the New QE?
October 30, 2020 - Ryan ChieduchWhen QE was introduced to the markets by the Fed back in 2008/2009, it quickly became a major influence on stocks prices, displacing traditional metrics such as earnings, earnings growth, and valuation. To that point, in the first half of the 2010s, really...
Read MoreShifting Assumptions - Discounting Political Risk
October 27, 2020 - Ryan ChieduchStocks opened the week with moderate losses Monday morning, but the selling pressure quickly picked up within the first hour as investors were focused on the rising number of global coronavirus cases and continued lack of progress towards a stimulus deal...
Read MoreA Historic Market Recovery
October 15, 2020 - Ryan ChieduchWe hope that this letter finds you safe and healthy during these still-unprecedented times. 2020 continued to be one of the most unpredictable years in memory, as markets rose to new all-time highs in the third quarter despite a resurgence in coronavirus...
Read MoreRising Odds of A Clear U.S. Election Outcome
October 8, 2020 - Ryan ChieduchWith less than four weeks to go until the U.S. presidential election, investors remain concerned about the possibility of a disputed election result that could drag on beyond election night, something along the lines of the Bush vs. Gore Florida recount...
Read MoreElection Preview - Part 2
September 30, 2020 - Ryan ChieduchThe debate last night served as a window into the sad state of American politics. Enough said on that front… In a continuation of yesterday’s note, we look at the worst case scenario of no clear winner on election day: The “Ugly”: No Clear Winner Emerges...
Read MoreElection Preview - Part 1
September 29, 2020 - Ryan ChieduchThe first Presidential debate occurs tonight and it kicks off the final stretch towards Election Day, November 3rd, so I wanted to provide what could be considered an initial “Election Preview” that details three possible scenarios: Trump Presidency with...
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