Capital Currents - November 2025
November 21, 2025 - Elizabeth HermantMany of the biggest winners in this year’s gravity-defying stock market rally have been part of the much-hyped AI trade. Our clients know we think the expectations built into the valuations of these companies are unrealistic and hiding a great deal of downside risk. But even if we ignore those valuations, there’s a much more concerning underlying economic reality to contend with: for the time being, nobody’s really making any money off of AI.
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October 23, 2025 - Ryan ChieduchStock market valuations have risen to historically elevated levels this year, particularly in the tech-heavy U.S. market. We view investing in high valuation stocks much like high altitude mountain climbing in thin air: it’s not impossible to keep climbing, but you’d better be well prepared given the potential hazards. With this in mind, we’re focused on investing in companies with strong fundamentals rather than chasing high momentum names.
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September 19, 2025 - Ryan HarderThis month we focus on the Federal Reserve’s unorthodox restart of its rate cutting cycle, even while U.S economic data remains strong with core inflation rising. We see this dovish stance from the Fed as a driver of inflation and debasement going forward, but a key risk to long-term bonds and the purchasing power of savings.
Read moreCapital Currents – July 2025
July 28, 2025 - Ryan HarderThe likelihood of President Trump pushing Fed Chair Jay Powell out of office prior to the end of his term next spring is now fairly low, but we still expect a significant shift in how the Fed sets interest rates starting next year. This month we take a quick look at whether Trump can or will push Powell out of office before May, as well as the potential investment implications of a new Fed chair who may cut rates even with inflation running well above target.
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June 24, 2025 - Ryan HarderWe often think of cash deposits as an inert, unchanging store of value – the true risk-free asset. However, the fundamental reality is that currency leaks value over time by design, and not only in terms of purchasing power. In this month’s note we explore how the modern financial system is structured in a way that debases currency over time and how scarcity assets can provide a long-term hedge against this phenomenon.
Read moreCapital Currents – May 2025
May 26, 2025 - Ryan HarderIt’s no secret that investing in high quality businesses with strong fundamentals and promising growth prospects is important for achieving long-term investing success, but the reality is that this is just half of the picture. Of equal importance is the price paid for those businesses – a factor that at times is overlooked by retail investors and institutional portfolio managers alike. This month we examine the importance of both sides of the investment process and show the often-overlooked impact of valuations in determining a portfolio’s ultimate performance.
Read moreCapital Currents – April 2025
April 21, 2025 - Ryan HarderIn this issue of Capital Currents, we’re looking at how markets neither fully price in nor price out tariff risk. Our focus is on disciplined investing, seeing uncertainty as an opportunity, and differentiating the good risks from the bad.
Read moreCapital Currents – March 2025
March 14, 2025 - Ryan HarderAs portfolio managers, our job is to make sure we’re on top of every development, policy change, rate cut, data release, and headline. We’ve certainly had plenty of those to keep track of in the last few weeks. Sweeping U.S. import tariffs were announced, then delayed, then back on, then doubled, then postponed. Sometimes the gap between meaningful policy shifts can be measured in minutes, and each shift impacts markets.
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February 27, 2025 - Ryan HarderThe weeks that immediately followed a Republican sweep of the White House, Congress and Senate were met with a surge of optimism in markets: the S&P 500 climbed 5%, megacap tech stocks jumped, Bitcoin surged to an all-time high, and a variety of so-called meme-stocks exploded in value. The playbook for what worked in those early days was quite simple: the more speculative the asset the better. The rationale for this exuberance was that a Trump presidency would see lower taxes, more deregulation, and a friendly business environment overall.
Read moreCapital Currents - Market Update
February 3, 2025 - Ryan HarderImpending tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S. are a source of continued volatility for North American stocks, but Monday's market reaction revealed some key insights into how investors can mitigate the impact on their portfolios.
Read moreCapital Currents – January 2025
January 28, 2025 - Ryan HarderOur outlook for 2025 focuses on three key areas: government policy, earnings growth, and rate cuts. With valuations priced for perfection, stock markets will likely need a coordinated effort from all three to post another stellar year.
Read moreCapital Currents – December 2024
December 13, 2024 - Ryan Harder2024 in a sentence: Unrestrained fiscal deficits and a surprisingly resilient U.S. economy unleashed animal spirits and pushed stock markets to new highs. However, historically expensive valuations will make a repeat performance much more difficult in 2025.
Read moreCapital Currents – November 2024
November 13, 2024 - Ryan HarderA strong showing across the board for Trump and the GOP marks a significant shift in U.S. power dynamics. This month we highlight a few key potential investment implications of a Trump presidency.
Read moreCapital Currents – October 2024
October 10, 2024 - Ryan HarderSomewhat counterintuitively, the beginning of the Fed’s rate cut cycle has marked the low in bond yields. This serves as a timely reminder that markets are forward looking, and investors should pay just as much attention to expectations as they do to current conditions.
Read moreCapital Currents – September 2024
September 9, 2024 - Ryan HarderCapital Currents is a new recurring newsletter from the Chieduch Group that will provide a brief look at themes and developments in markets, macroeconomics, geopolitics, and wealth management each month.
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