COVID-19 Around the World

April 30, 2021 | Matt Barasch


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Chart of the Week

Many of technology’s biggest companies reported earnings this past week. As part of their results, many of them announced large share buybacks as they continue to generate cash at ever increasing levels:

While this does not capture the latest quarter, the large technology companies are now generating in excess of $300bn of free cash flow (basically cash leftover after you have paid for everything) every year.

COVID-19 Update

Worldwide cases are now in excess of 150 million, while fatalities from the virus are approaching 3.2 million. Daily new cases are running around 850k; although, the 7-day moving average has been flat for the past couple of weeks, which may be a hopeful sign that we are approaching the end of the third wave of the virus.

The Good News

While the headlines may not capture this, beneath the surface, things are improving in most regions of the world. Let’s look at some charts, starting with Israel:

The 7-day moving average is now down below 100 new cases/day for the first time since last June. Further, the fatality rate has dropped to a few per day. Let’s now turn to the U.S.:

After a sharp decline in January and February, cases had stagnated, but once again they appear to be on the decline. The U.S. has now administered a staggering 240 million vaccines with nearly half of Americans receiving at least one dose and close to 1/3rd of the population now fully vaccinated. Okay, let’s turn to the European Union:

Europe has seen three separate spikes of the virus since the fall, but appears to be in the midst of a decline. Vaccine distribution has picked up with nearly 25% of the population now getting a least one dose and with warmer weather, we could finally begin to see the EU break down below 100k cases/day in the coming weeks. Okay, let’s finish the thread with Canada:

Okay, again, it is early days, but we are beginning to see cases come down after a one-month spike. By focusing on first doses, Canada has now gotten to ~25% of the population with at least one dose of a vaccine with this likely to move sharply higher in the coming weeks as vaccine flow improves.

The Bad News

While many areas of the world are seeing improvement, the situations in India and to a lesser extent Brazil are dire:

India has administered ~150mn vaccines so far; however, because its population is so large (in excess of a billion), less than 10% of the population has received even one dose thus far. The hope would be that as the U.S. gets closer to herd immunity, the vast supplies of vaccine that they are sitting on could be used, at least in part, to aide India in its humanitarian crisis.