Mike’s Musings

Hello, Conflict has broken out in the Middle East, introducing a new layer of uncertainty for the economy and markets. The situation remains fluid, but I outline below some of the potential implications of recent geopolitical developments for Canada,...

In what follows, we outline a range of scenarios and how we’re thinking about the current oil price shock. 1. Higher oil will drive up inflation but the magnitude depends on the persistence of the shock Headline inflation has now exceeded 2% for nearly...

A word from Mike Hello, Despite resilient equity markets, headline-driven uncertainty persisted through February, with tariffs and technology in focus. I discuss these themes, alongside North American corporate earnings trends and the implications for...

A Word from Mike Hello, Financial markets continue to navigate competing forces from corporate earnings, investor sentiment and economic data. Below, I share my perspective on recent volatility in technology stocks, the Canadian labour market, and evolving...

Supply-demand conditions weakened further in most large Canadian markets as January unfolded. Potential buyers remained cautious despite elevated inventory giving them the upper hand. Severe winter weather likely contributed to the slowdown, with significant...

A word from Mike Hello, A range of developments continues to shape the investment landscape, with potential implications for the macro outlook. I discuss recent corporate earnings updates, monetary policy, and U.S. political risk in more detail below...

The World Economic Forum this year became a tale of two Davoses. Inside the main Congress Centre, a record number of attendees, including 850 CEOs, 80 tech billionaires and founders, hundreds of ministers and 65 heads of government spent the week hearing...

A narrative spun that a recession was nearly unavoidable for a country that had become so dependent on a trade partner who now looked to sever parts of its economic relationship. And yet, Canada’s economy did not collapse. There were no two quarters of...

A Word from Mike Hello, Markets have entered the new year digesting a steady stream of headlines, underscoring the importance of staying focused on fundamentals. I discuss geopolitics, corporate earnings, and monetary policy in more detail below. Geopolitical...