Gold, U.S. Dollar and The Treasury Market Fall Into The Crosshairs

January 30, 2026 |Michael Capobianco
Given today’s commodity market carnage, I’d like to look at economic signals emanating from U.S. Dollar Assets. Treasury bonds used to be boring. Apply a 2 % inflation expectation, a real growth rate estimate to arrive at estimate for a fair yield. For...
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The Narrowing Of Focus

January 23, 2026 |Michael Capobianco
The S&P 500 has always been viewed as a balanced cross-section of the U.S. economy. Over time, it has slowly transformed into a tech- and AI-dominated index. As 2026 begins with markets near record highs, this fact should be top of mind for investors...
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How China Is Poised To Grow Further

January 16, 2026 |Michael Capobianco
Today we’ll examine China to find how policy and fundamentals can continue to foster economic growth. Chinese equities closed out 2025 with strong annual gains. The MSCI China Index surged 31 %, while Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index rallied 28 %...
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Setting The Stage For 2026

January 09, 2026 |Michael Capobianco
Good Morning, Happy New Year ! Hoping that you enjoyed the holiday season. 2025 saw global stock market power through tariff uncertainty to all-time highs many cases. Today we’ll examine whether the three-year winning streak can be extended. What will...
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Setting The Stage For 2026

January 09, 2026 |Michael Capobianco
Good Morning, Happy New Year ! Hoping that you enjoyed the holiday season. 2025 saw global stock market power through tariff uncertainty to all-time highs many cases. Today we’ll examine whether the three-year winning streak can be extended. What will...
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The Last Shift

December 14, 2025 |Michael Capobianco
Another rate cut from the Federal Reserve this week has taken U.S. interest rates into a new era where every rate cut means that policy gets easier …. and decisions only get harder. As widely expected, the Fed delivered its third consecutive rate cut...
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Rising Tides Lift All Boats Unevenly

December 05, 2025 |Michael Capobianco
While rising tides lift all boats – the amount risen depends on the boat ! Not only has the U.S. equity rally been uneven in 2025, the segment of the market that has dominated during this bull market cycle has been narrow and concentrated mainly in the...
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How Markets Reached All-Time Highs

November 21, 2025 |Michael Capobianco
Long-term economic trends have left the U.S. economy increasingly reliant on spending by upper-income households. Let’s unpack the potential implications for economic stability and Federal Reserve policymaking. In recent years, The U.S. has cut interest...
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Is Too Much Control A Good Thing ?

November 14, 2025 |Michael Capobianco
The Trump administration has made broad interpretations of existing legislative authority to make unilateral policy moves. Let’s examine how centralized decision-making raises concerns and the implications for the global economy. The Trump administration...
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The Implications of U.S. Dollar Weakenss

November 07, 2025 |Michael Capobianco
The U.S. Dollar has had a volatile year. Today we will examine reasons for this and the longer-term challenges ahead. After a sharp slide in first half of 2025, the Dollar has settled into a narrower range. Foreign demand for U.S. assets was more resilient...
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