2026 Market Outlook 

Markets have entered the new year digesting a steady stream of headlines, underscoring the importance of staying focused on fundamentals. We discuss geopolitics, corporate earnings, and monetary policy in more detail below.

2026 Market Outlook

U.S. Recession Scorecard: Stuck with reduced visibility

The scorecard indicators remain mixed, including a shift in the yield curve indicator. The government shutdown has limited employment data, confirming a cautious investment approach is needed, as ongoing policy and trade shifts affect the economy. 

Fall 2025 Commentary - U.S. Recession Scorecard: Stuck with reduced visibility

Trade Deals, Deadlines and Delays 

Despite summer typically being more quiet, the headline-filled nature of 2025 has yet to show signs of slowing. A few notable developments have taken place recently, including the signing of a key piece of U.S. legislation and new tariff rates being proposed. We discuss below.

Summer 2025 Commentary - Trade Deals, Deadlines and Delays 

The Fed raises the bar for lower rates

 October 31, 2025 |Thomas Garretson, CFA

Despite a second consecutive rate cut, a hawkish turn from the Fed supports our view that it’s on hold until at least 2026. While that may have previously caused market turbulence, investors seem content with the idea the Fed has already done enough.

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AI’s big leaps in 2025

 October 03, 2025 |Frédérique Carrier

AI is seldom out of the headlines in 2025, with defining developments coming one after another. We look at where AI is today and explain how its promise is matched against technological, economic, and geopolitical challenges.

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Tech steals the Q2 earnings show

Tech steals the Q2 earnings show

 August 11, 2025 |Kelly Bogdanova

There are more positive than negative aspects of the Q2 S&P 500 earnings season. But there are some nuances within the Information Technology sector data that we think call for restraint.

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