U.S. Recession Scorecard: Stuck with reduced visibility

The scorecard indicators remain mixed, including a shift in the yield curve indicator. The government shutdown has limited employment data, confirming a cautious investment approach is needed, as ongoing policy and trade shifts affect the economy. 

Fall 2025 Commentary - U.S. Recession Scorecard: Stuck with reduced visibility

Trade Deals, Deadlines and Delays 

Despite summer typically being more quiet, the headline-filled nature of 2025 has yet to show signs of slowing. A few notable developments have taken place recently, including the signing of a key piece of U.S. legislation and new tariff rates being proposed. We discuss below.

Summer 2025 Commentary - Trade Deals, Deadlines and Delays 

The numbers behind U.S. tariffs

 September 26, 2025 |Joseph Wu, CFA

Collections from U.S. tariffs are surging. As legal uncertainty looms and costs gradually pass through, balancing resilient corporate fundamentals against policy risks remains crucial for portfolio positioning.

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Beyond tariffs, what can the U.S. do in its quest for trade balance?

Beyond tariffs, what can the U.S. do in its quest for trade balance?

 May 06, 2025 |Atul Bhatia, CFA

Running up debts to buy foreign goods is unsustainable in the long term. Identifying the problem is simple, but we see no easy or quick escape for the U.S. from the imbalances built up over the last four decades.

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