U.S. Recession Scorecard: Stuck with reduced visibility

The scorecard indicators remain mixed, including a shift in the yield curve indicator. The government shutdown has limited employment data, confirming a cautious investment approach is needed, as ongoing policy and trade shifts affect the economy. 

Fall 2025 Commentary - U.S. Recession Scorecard: Stuck with reduced visibility

Trade Deals, Deadlines and Delays 

Despite summer typically being more quiet, the headline-filled nature of 2025 has yet to show signs of slowing. A few notable developments have taken place recently, including the signing of a key piece of U.S. legislation and new tariff rates being proposed. We discuss below.

Summer 2025 Commentary - Trade Deals, Deadlines and Delays 

U.S. equity returns in 2025: Record-breaking resilience

 January 08, 2026 |Kelly Bogdanova

U.S. stocks powered through tariff turbulence on the way to all-time highs. But it’s only natural to question whether the three-year winning streak can be extended. We look at what drove equities in 2025 and how prospects for 2026 are shaping up.

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Building on a narrow base

 January 06, 2026 |Atul Bhatia, CFA

Long-term economic trends have left the U.S. economy increasingly reliant on spending by upper-income households. We unpack the potential implications for economic stability and Federal Reserve policymaking.

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