2026 Market Outlook 

Markets have entered the new year digesting a steady stream of headlines, underscoring the importance of staying focused on fundamentals. We discuss geopolitics, corporate earnings, and monetary policy in more detail below.

2026 Market Outlook

U.S. Recession Scorecard: Stuck with reduced visibility

The scorecard indicators remain mixed, including a shift in the yield curve indicator. The government shutdown has limited employment data, confirming a cautious investment approach is needed, as ongoing policy and trade shifts affect the economy. 

Fall 2025 Commentary - U.S. Recession Scorecard: Stuck with reduced visibility

Trade Deals, Deadlines and Delays 

Despite summer typically being more quiet, the headline-filled nature of 2025 has yet to show signs of slowing. A few notable developments have taken place recently, including the signing of a key piece of U.S. legislation and new tariff rates being proposed. We discuss below.

Summer 2025 Commentary - Trade Deals, Deadlines and Delays 

Video: Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 2.75% as U.S. trade tensions persist

 March 13, 2025 |Josh Nye

The Bank of Canada lowered its benchmark interest rate again in March, this time to 2.75% from 3%.

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What is the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy?

What is the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy?

 March 06, 2025 |Mike Reid and Carrie Freestone
The effective U.S. tariff rate is now at its highest level since the 1940s after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4. A new order was also signed for China, increasing tariffs to...
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U.S. tariffs on Canada take effect: What is the state of play?

U.S. tariffs on Canada take effect: What is the state of play?

 March 06, 2025 |Frances Donald and Cynthia Leach

Although trade policies are evolving and government responses remain uncertain, here is a summary of what we know.

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U.S. tariffs on Canada take effect: What is the state of play?

U.S. tariffs on Canada take effect: What is the state of play?

 March 06, 2025 |Frances Donald and Cynthia Leach
The U.S. administration has implemented blanket tariffs on Canada and Mexico after a 30-day reprieve with 25% on all imports except 10% on Canadian energy. An additional 10% tariff on China is also planned. Canada has been hit with its largest trade shock...
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Tariffs’ leverage extends far beyond trade

Tariffs’ leverage extends far beyond trade

 February 05, 2025 |Atul Bhatia, CFA

Tariffs can have many economic impacts, but we think investors should focus on the economic and political goals that are driving decision-making.

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Video: Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 3% amid U.S. trade uncertainty

Video: Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 3% amid U.S. trade uncertainty

 January 30, 2025 |Josh Nye, Canadian Fixed Income Strategist

The Bank of Canada lowered its benchmark interest rate in January to 3% from 3.25% amid ongoing uncertainty over the threat of U.S. tariffs.

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A new age of enlightenment?

A new age of enlightenment?

 October 15, 2024 |Tony Pringle, CFA

With the adoption of the Internet, everyone seems to be blogging and posting “information” online. Of course, many of us ignore this, but others do not and, in fact, take these messages as the truth.

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Gambling fever

Gambling fever

 March 31, 2024 |Tony Pringle, CFA
It seems as though gambling is everywhere and on the rise in many societies. Lottery commercials are frequently advertised on TV and, now, online sports betting is legal in many places. These betting companies have been advertising using athletes as their...
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