2026 Market Outlook 

Markets have entered the new year digesting a steady stream of headlines, underscoring the importance of staying focused on fundamentals. We discuss geopolitics, corporate earnings, and monetary policy in more detail below.

2026 Market Outlook

U.S. Recession Scorecard: Stuck with reduced visibility

The scorecard indicators remain mixed, including a shift in the yield curve indicator. The government shutdown has limited employment data, confirming a cautious investment approach is needed, as ongoing policy and trade shifts affect the economy. 

Fall 2025 Commentary - U.S. Recession Scorecard: Stuck with reduced visibility

Trade Deals, Deadlines and Delays 

Despite summer typically being more quiet, the headline-filled nature of 2025 has yet to show signs of slowing. A few notable developments have taken place recently, including the signing of a key piece of U.S. legislation and new tariff rates being proposed. We discuss below.

Summer 2025 Commentary - Trade Deals, Deadlines and Delays 

Beyond tariffs, what can the U.S. do in its quest for trade balance?

Beyond tariffs, what can the U.S. do in its quest for trade balance?

 May 06, 2025 |Atul Bhatia, CFA

Running up debts to buy foreign goods is unsustainable in the long term. Identifying the problem is simple, but we see no easy or quick escape for the U.S. from the imbalances built up over the last four decades.

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Video: Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 2.75% as U.S. trade tensions persist

 March 13, 2025 |Josh Nye

The Bank of Canada lowered its benchmark interest rate again in March, this time to 2.75% from 3%.

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U.S. tariffs on Canada take effect: What is the state of play?

U.S. tariffs on Canada take effect: What is the state of play?

 March 06, 2025 |Frances Donald and Cynthia Leach

Although trade policies are evolving and government responses remain uncertain, here is a summary of what we know.

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U.S. tariffs on Canada take effect: What is the state of play?

U.S. tariffs on Canada take effect: What is the state of play?

 March 06, 2025 |Frances Donald and Cynthia Leach
The U.S. administration has implemented blanket tariffs on Canada and Mexico after a 30-day reprieve with 25% on all imports except 10% on Canadian energy. An additional 10% tariff on China is also planned. Canada has been hit with its largest trade shock...
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Tariffs’ leverage extends far beyond trade

Tariffs’ leverage extends far beyond trade

 February 05, 2025 |Atul Bhatia, CFA

Tariffs can have many economic impacts, but we think investors should focus on the economic and political goals that are driving decision-making.

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Video: Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 3% amid U.S. trade uncertainty

Video: Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 3% amid U.S. trade uncertainty

 January 30, 2025 |Josh Nye, Canadian Fixed Income Strategist

The Bank of Canada lowered its benchmark interest rate in January to 3% from 3.25% amid ongoing uncertainty over the threat of U.S. tariffs.

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