Blog for Friday, December 16th, 2024
Lightening, speed round updates abound
“Greetings gentile readers of the Ton.”
I have always wanted to start my blog in a “Brigdertonesk” kind of way. It has been a while since I blogged. Mostly because I had no real news to report. Things started to accumulate so I have something to write about now.
All good really. Busy with the holiday season, concerts, shows, parties, year-end work stuff. The days and nights seem to be full. Just decorating two houses and an office for Christmas has taken a lot of effort and time. Denise added to the task by adding more lights and decorations, trees, and planters to the mix this year. I resisted the work, however, in the end she was right (she doesn’t get to hear this all that often) and our properties look very festive.
I going to go with lightening, speed rounds for the blog today. So here goes, in no particular order.
Personal…
All is good with my eyes. With two eyes working in conjunction with each other, I can see fairly well. Not perfect vision and I’ll take it. Not getting worse is critical for me. I don’t forsee it is going to get a whole lot better. I’m back to more exercise and I see my specialist next week for an update. I am hoping to get the green light to hit the slopes again.
We didn’t get the massive dump of snow in Collingwood like they did in towns of Lake Erie, Lake Superior and east of Georgian Bay. My guess is we got around 20 cms total. I will find out this weekend when I head up there again. I am expecting to spend a fair amount of time snow blowing the walkways etc. The plow has been by to clean the driveway at least five times so far. The blast of winter has allowed our ski club to make snow on top of the natural accumulation and it is apparently opening next weekend, which is exciting for me.
Speaking of skiing,..we are hitting the slopes in Whistler over the New Years this year. The cost of heading south for a week to the Caribbean was absolutely ridiculous so we started to look at alternatives. My son, Alex, and his wife, Yvonne, are now based on the west coast and they were not planning on coming home for the holidays due to work commitments. So…we figured we would go out there! They are going to join us for a few days along with a good high school friend of mine and his family. We have been to Whistler several times (we love the place) and never at New Years. I’m looking forward to the big dump of snow they have already received, seeing the fireworks at midnight, and to see in the new year with a few of my favourite people.
Alex and Yvonne purchased a piece of property in an exclusive development in Pemberton (30 minutes north of Whistler) and they are going to build a home this coming summer. We plan on seeing the property on New Year’s Day. We are excited for them.
Monty is growing fast…well too fast actually. He ended up with a rare inflammation of his right leg bone because he was growing too fast. A couple of thousand dollars later, he’s back on his feet (pun intended) and doing well. He’s a trouble maker. He likes to roam the house looking for things to get into. He is especially fond of Kleenex from the trash and the fur on anything UGGs. He’s also a horse of an eater! He loves his food and ice cubes apparently. Matilda is tolerating him well and I think she has realized he isn’t going anywhere soon.
Denise was honoured this past week by her Whitby Sunrise Rotary Club. She received the Paul Harris Award, which is given to a member of the club for their outstanding contribution to the community. Denise sat on the board of the club, chaired the fundraising committee for many years, and chaired the Savour the Flavour event that raised hundreds of thousands of dollars during her tenure. Congratulations to my extraordinary wife. I am very proud of your achievements.
We did not make it to see Taylor Swift. I am not the biggest fan so I don’t feel like I missed anything. Denise and I had to fight traffic twice during her tour dates to Toronto. Once to see Bruce Springsteen and the other to see comedian, Sebatian Maniscalco. The “Boss” was fabulous over a three hour, non-stop concert. I last saw him in 1984 on the Born in the USA Tour. He and the band have not missed a beat. Maniscalco left us with stitches in our sides. He was so funny and at some point, we couldn’t laugh anymore.
Speaking of bands…be sure to check out Prime Video’s four-part series on the Tragically Hip. It left me in tears. It is well worth the time to watch it.
Other tidbits and lessons…
Brain rot is Oxford’s word (s) of the year. The phrase captures the deterioration of a person’s mental and intellectual state, especially due to overconsumption of trivial or unchallenging material, mainly online. It speaks to the perceived dangers of our virtual lives and how we use our free time.
A client experienced feeling very unwell with her health for about six months this year. None of the doctors she saw, including neurologists, could figure out what was wrong with her. By fluke, someone mentioned Lyme Disease and she tested for it. It turned out to be what she had! A cocktail of drugs has thankfully put her back on her feet quickly, however, during that period of feeling unwell it was completely debilitating. Don’t ignore this disease as it is becoming more common than not with more ticks in Canada. Check yourself and your pets for bites regularly.
Another client was recently declined for life insurance and it was recommended that they speak with their doctor as to the reasons why. It turned out he had early stage prostrate cancer and is now undergoing treatment to address the problem. The rejected policy application may have saved his life! Not all rejection is bad and sometimes it can turn out for the best.
Economy and markets…
The markets have been on fire this year to say the least and client portfolios are doing very well overall. Not all is sunshine and roses for everyone, however. Many Canadians are carrying more debt and missing payments. Consumer debt hit a record high of $2.5 trillion in Q3 this year, up 4.1% from last year. Delinquencies over 90 days or more were up 2%. High housing and grocery bills among other things are putting the pressure on Canadian budgets. Hopefully some relief is coming with further cuts in interest rates by the Bank of Canada.
Employment numbers were out today in Canada with 55,000 new jobs created yet our unemployment rate increased to 6.8%, the highest in three years. Contrast that with the USA where 127,000 new jobs were created and unemployment rose to 4.2%. Inflation numbers are set to be released in the USA next week shedding further light on the economic situation south of the border.
The Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates 0.5% again next week with several more 0.25% cuts into early 2025. The target Bank rate is 2% for which we are at 3.75% now.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 0.25% later this month with a further cut of 0.25% into early 2025 and then pause.
Clearly the USA is on more solid footing than we are here in Canada. The economic slowdown has been felt much harder at home than for our neighbours.
One implication of the divergence in interest rates is on the Canadian dollar to USD exchange as it dips to 70 cents on the dollar. This makes it tough on import of goods from the USA as well as things such as travel. The situation unfortunately is likely to get worse as rates continue to diverge.
Trump of course won the election as we all know. His plan for tariffs could cause some real headaches in the next year for which the impact of that is unknown. I see for the USA that unemployment and costs of goods are likely to rise as a result. He is expected to throw money at the problem through stimulus spending and tax cuts, however, that is likely to cause inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve is going to have a heck of a time figuring out their interest rate policy in light of Trump policy, and it is my guess that the rates south of the border are going to have to remain higher than expected to counter the inflationary Trump policies.
As for Canada, and the rest of the world for that matter, the impact of tariffs is going to hurt, and it is my best guess that interest rates are going to have to fall more than expected in order to blunt the impact of tariffs and stimulate the economy.
The USA markets have enjoyed a good ride higher in value as investors bet that Trump policies are going to stimulate the USA economy and thus increase profits for corporate America. So far I am riding this wave with future caution. I am watching for impacts on the global economy due to new tariffs and I will take action accordingly. For now, it is steady as she goes.
That’s it for this blog. It is a big weekend for NCAA USA college football playoff rankings with many spots still on the line for a position in the twelve team playoffs. I will be taking it all in!
I am not sure I am going to create another blog before the holidays arrive, so Happy Holidays to everyone and may 2025 be the best year ever for all of you.
Be well.
Miles…