Blog for September 15th, 2025
University visits, ice fields melting, and interest rate cuts.
Welcome back! By the second week of September I figure everyone, including me, has gotten back to their routines. I hope the summer was as fun for you as it was for me and my family.
It turned out to be the summer of university tours. Addison is applying to universities starting next month and we wanted to get a feel for campus life. Unexpectedly, Denise, Addison and I travelled the country from coast to coast and in between. It wasn’t our intention. It just happened.
We ended up going to Halifax to see Dalhousie, Acadia and St FX’s, to Vancouver to see UBC, to Calgary to see U of C, and to Guelph, Ottawa, McMaster and U of T in Ontario. This was over a few trips throughout the summer. To be fair, Denise and I made sure there were a few places we wanted to visit for fun and not just tour universities.
Where Addison chooses to apply is still unknown. So many great schools and programs. She is looking at Bioscience, which is foreign to her accountant/wealth advisor and lawyer parents.
Our highlights & mother nature’s cry
I mentioned our visit to Tofino and Vancouver in my last blog. Tofino is on the top of our list to go back to. Unfortunately, some of the amazing hiking spots we encountered on that trip burned to the ground in the forest fires the region encountered.
Another favourite trip was to Jasper and Banff. We have visited Banff several times in winter for skiing but not during the summer, and we have never been to Jasper before. Our adventure included white water rafting on the Athabasca River, an electric bike ride (very cool…we need to get a couple of these), and a stay at the Jasper Park Lodge (amazing - we felt like we were at summer camp).
The drive from Banff to Jasper is incredible and a must see in your lifetime. The ice fields were jaw dropping. We hiked to the Columbia Ice field and were stunned by how much the ice had receded over the decades. Signs along the path indicated where the ice field extended based on different decades. It reached well past the road and covered the entire area when first discovered in the late 1800’s. Even as early as 1982 or 1994, the field was much larger than it is today. The loss due to climate change was eye opening. I would guess that one day in the future, there may not be an ice field to visit. Tragic.
Also tragic was the devastation caused by the wildfires last summer. Huge swaths of forest were charred around Jasper. Whole sections of the town were gone due to the fireballs that were thrown off by the fires and landing on buildings. Luckily the winds changed direction, and the fire moved away from town. It also stopped short of advancing into BC.
Despite the devastation, tourism was strong and visitors endless in Jasper and Banff. Crazy busy. Tourists for some reason lose their minds when an elk or black bear is spotted near the road. It was a common occurrence for people to stop right in the middle of the highway to get a photo. Very frustrating and very dangerous.
Don’t get me started about Lake Louise and the tourist volume there. There was NO way we were getting near the Fairmont to see the lake. IT WAS INSANE. It was too bad as we wanted to revisit the site of my proposal to Denise just days prior to the world shutting down because of Covid.
Overall, our travels this summer were fun, fun, fun and it was great to revisit some cool spots in Canada.
Still rocking on
On another topic, in my last blog I mentioned Denise and my near death experience seeing Coldplay at Rogers Stadium due to the anticipated collapse and swaying of the temporary stadium seats. Well wouldn’t you know it, we went back a couple of times more to see Oasis this time. We were on the floors where there was no swaying and once in the lower stands where somehow there was limited swaying. I really like the venue and find the stadium is as much a part of the adventure as the concerts.
We also made it the Budweiser Stage to see a few concerts this summer including Little Big Town with Wynonna Judd opening for them, The Offspring, and the Who. Roger and Pete were a touch older than the last time I saw them in the 80’s. They were both in their 80’s now and the air splits, guitar windmills, microphone throwing, guitar smashing days were mostly gone. Pete Townsend was pretty much on speck from the start, however, it took Roger Daltrey a while to get warmed up. And did he come through on the vocals once he did! Truly a great farewell tour. And really at their age, they need to hang it up.
No more pups… for Monty
Speaking of farewell and no longer able to reproduce, Monty was neutered the other week. It has been a challenge trying to keep a high energy puppy quiet and inactive. Yeah us. He had a checkup Monday and was given the all clear. Yeah us again. Whew. We made it.
Football season is underway and Denise has already started to complain about being a football widow. It’s not that bad. I like to have the games on in the background while doing other things. It’s not like I am cracking a few beers and parking myself in front of the television…Monday night, Thursday night, all day Saturday (USA college ball), and Sunday (NFL). Please…
Back to business
Global stock markets remain strong despite the potential impacts of tariffs and numerous other geopolitical and economic issues. I believe investors are focused on investing in technology companies focused on artificial intelligence (AI), which is helping to move USA stocks higher.
Interest rate policy is the primary focus this week with the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve reporting their stance on interest rates Wednesday. Cuts in rates will help stock valuations and support higher prices. We are starting to see some cracks in the USA economy due to the lagged effects of tariff policy, which has largely been disregarded by equity investors so far. Higher inflation and lower employment may not be able to be ignored for long, however.
It is almost a given that the Federal Reserve will cut rates a quarter point tomorrow in light of the weak employment numbers south of the border. Jobless claims in the US last week were much higher than expected. Adding to the issue was the recent revision downward of job growth in the USA. The Bureau of Labor Stats annually recalculates job data using real tax return filings. For the period April 2024 to March 2025, 911,000 fewer jobs were created in that period!!!
Inflation has also creeped up in the USA due to tariff impacts. This was an anticipated effect, although it has taken longer than expected to show up. CPI was up 0.4% in August and up 2.9% year over year. The Federal Reserve will have to balance interest rate policy in light of falling employment data and increasing inflation. Their mandate is primarily to control inflation. Rate cuts are not guaranteed going forward although anticipated.
President Trump has been very critical of Federal Reserve for not cutting interest rates sooner and more aggressively. His potential influence over policy, electing his “guy”, Stephen Miran to the board, and his attempted removal of Lisa Cook from the board has brought into question the Fed’s independence in making decisions on interest rate policy.
Fed independence is a critical aspect to the functioning of the financial system. The implication of this is that deep cuts in interest rates may spike inflation, which is not good for stock and bond market valuations.
Bank of Canada interest rate policy is more in question as inflation remains slightly elevated and employment has held up better than expected in light of the tariff situation. We may see a quarter point cut tomorrow as well. It is a toss up at this point.
The weakness starting to show in the USA data is concerning. This deterioration in the numbers is effectively keeping me on the sidelines. We continue to hold an oversized amount of cash in portfolios. Despite this, client portfolios are doing extremely well with good results year to date. So far, I have yet to find any clients that disagree with this approach.
Be well and have a fun upcoming Fall. Enjoy the fabulous weather.
Miles…