The Global Insight Monthly offers perspectives from the Global Portfolio Advisory Committee on:
- Will political turbulence roil equities? As Washington grapples with the possible impeachment of President Trump, we look at the potential implications for equity investments. Market performance during past presidential scandals, and the views of institutional investors, suggest economic fundamentals will likely outweigh political drama.
- Global equity: The dichotomy between business angst and confident consumers is more or less the state of affairs across the developed world. While we’re tuned in to the warning signs of when a U.S. recession may arrive, that looks to us to be some ways off. Stocks can move higher from here, and we expect they will.
- Global fixed income: Christine Lagarde has stepped into the top job at the ECB, and successfully bridging the chasm between monetary and fiscal policy will be her immediate challenge. Initially, we expect a continuation of her predecessor’s policies, but it’s probably safe to say Lagarde wasn’t hired to maintain the status quo.
- Currencies: The U.S. dollar pulled back from two-year highs as signs of an easing in global risk events including U.S.-China trade and a no-deal Brexit diminished safe-haven demand.
- Commodities: Wheat – No pain, no grains
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