Economic Update by Eric Lascelles

Economic Update by Eric Lascelles

 

• Key themes for 2025: 1 – Sustained economic growth / 2 – Vibecession to fade / 3 – U.S. exceptionalism to persist / 4 – Animal spirits unleashed / 5 – Tricky inflation / 6 – Rate cuts slow / 7 – “No landing” scenario on the table / 8 – Tariffs, but how much? / 9 – Chinese resilience / 10 – Geopolitics in focus / 11 – Choppy Canada / Plus Canadian economic issues
• December webcast / Economic developments / Economic upside index / U.S. election update / Promising U.S. housing / Canadian corner
• U.S. election debrief / Favourable economic trends / Economy is not the stock market / Peak Canadian pessimism?
• U.S. election countdown / U.S. activity holds up / High savings rates / Deteriorating demographics / Canadian immigration reversal / Quick hits
• Hurricane distortions / Falling recession risk / Smaller Federal Reserve rate cuts / Trump likelihood mounts / China stimulus / Oil price risk / Canadian economic update
• Global Investment Outlook / Recession risk drops / Inflation trend improves / The U.S. Fed goes 50 / Yield curve un-inverts / U.S. election math remains close / Oil price weakness continues / Canadian wage mystery grows / China stockpiles commodities?
• The economic data see-saw / Central bank actions / Monetary policy asymmetry / USMCA re-opens in 2026 / Drilling into Canadian housing / Quick hits
• Business cycle update / Fed rate cut nears / U.S. election update / U.S. economic check-up / Is the U.S. economy still overheating? / Geopolitical tensions rise further / Canadian corner
• Market mayhem / Quick hits / U.S. tariffs / Canadian shelter inflation
• U.S. election upended / Executive powers shifting / IT outage aftermath / Fiscal health reckoning? / Improving inflation / What to fret about / Canada check-up
• Canadian shadow economy Inflation fears ease / Fed policy rate remains unchanged / U.S. liquidity edges higher / U.S. economic slowdown continues / Consumer vignettes show rising worries / Political developments heat up / Weight-loss drugs evolve / Canadian economy continues to move forward / Canada’s shadow economy is growing
• Consumer price sensitivity rises / Easing cycle continues / U.S. data evolves / U.S. economy has busy week ahead / U.S. election update / Gold prices rise / Financial stress rising for Canadian consumers
• Easing inflation / Central banks in motion / Economic convergence / U.S. consumer worries / What’s really happening in China? / Japan’s symbolic threshold / Canada’s capital gains inclusion rate
• U.S. economy slows / What is a sustainable unemployment rate? / What’s driving insurance inflation? / Sifting through the latest buzz words / Tracking the business cycle / How have higher interest rates affected the economy? / Shifting expectations as Fed recalibrates / Putting wage growth in context / Quantifying geopolitical risks / U.S. election nears, but becomes less clear / What’s the focus of China’s third plenum? / Catching up on productivity and technology developments
• Market anxieties / Why growth? / Revisiting forecasts / What happens next? / Big versus small businesses / U.S. immigration surge / Some Chinese themes
• Strong economic data / Why wasn’t there a recession? / Baltimore port obstruction / Do U.S. companies like higher rates? / Who rules the global economic roost? / Tricky inflation / Central banks still on pause / Canadian business bankruptcies / Canadian budget coming soon
• Soft landing narrative remains intact / Inflation is falling gradually / Central banks diverge / Survey of various developments continues / Measures of economic output in conflict / Private credit isn’t driving the lending market / Where’s the cap-ex boom? / Puzzling mortgage delinquency rates
• Soft landing in the spotlight / Puzzling economic disconnect / U.S. politics and fiscal affairs / Odds and ends / Disappointing inflation / Canada’s immigration boom
• Business cycle update / Soft landing odds rising / Do recessions require panic? / Monetary cycles and recessions not always causally linked / U.S. employment data send mixed signals / The number two returns to the inflation story / Central banks think rate cuts / China in four acts / U.S. education declining
• Priced to perfection? / Two consumer tailwinds / Higher rates start to hurt / Survey versus hard data / Geopolitical risks / Shutdown averted, again / Republican race underway / U.S. election platforms / Canadian housing financial stress
• Soft landing versus hard landing / Supply chain back in focus / The Fed versus the rest / Imminent political events / Trend ambiguity / Economic developments
• The everything rally / Strong data, weakening trendline / Happy inflation trend / Central bank rate cuts? / Busy election year ahead / Global minimum tax / De-globalization under the microscope / The promise of artificial intelligence
• Short-term headwinds fade / Economic data worsens / Developed world weakens (ex-U.S.) / Consumer outlook is shifting / China’s tepid recovery continues / Inflation cooperates / U.S. fiscal burden may create drag / Who drives global growth? / Unions ascending?
• Yields rise even further / Yield curve un-inverts / Recession probability rises / Markets signal economic weakness / Hamas-Israel conflict / Inflation cools? / U.S. economic data weakens / Canada wobbles / China rebounds
• Recession questions / New headwinds / U.S. 2024 election ahead / Assorted economic developments / Inflation backup / Hawkish pauses
• Ukraine war update / Canadian wobbles / Mixed signals from U.S. economy / Consumer distress / German recession / Inflation odds and sods / Housing weakens anew?
• China’s continued economic woes / China stimulus / Higher yields / Economic trends / Inflation hiccup / U.S. debt downgrade / Manufacturing construction boom
• Business cycle signals recession? / Recession risk falls / New growth forecasts upgraded / Inflation still falling / Central banks near the finish line? / A fiscal thought / Constructive political signals from China / India’s future promise / B.C. port strike – take two
• Economic weakness continues in China / Port strike in British Columbia disrupts trade / Economic data weakens slightly / Consumer tidbits show mixed spending trends / Recession musings lead to shift in our forecast / Inflation cooperates in June / Central banks continue raising rates / Society in decline? - Part II
• Chaos erupts in Russia / Inflation is mostly cooperating / Central banks return to tightening / Stock markets rebound / China’s economy underwhelms / China’s youth unemployment soars / China’s local government debt rises / Canada enjoys growth advantage
• Technology and the economy / Debt ceiling asides / Fed liquidity programs / Contrarian on China / Softer economic data / Eurozone in recession / Rolling recession / Central bank surprise / Gauging national power
• Debt ceiling solution arrives? / Banking stress today versus S&L crisis / Murky economic data persists / Productivity woes emerge / Recession musings evolve / Inflation still set to decline / U.S. infrastructure boom?
• COVID conclusion / Ukraine war reversal / Banking stress / Business cycle still end of cycle / More recession musings / Sticky inflation / Central banks nearing target / Debt ceiling draws near / Housing strength
• Banking stress / Economic developments / Emerging market debt distress / Revisiting yield-curve recession models / Inflation cooperating / Tentative Canadian housing recovery / Fiscal burden
• Banking stress / Economic resilience / Waiting on inflation / Polarization and indictment
• Banking stress / China’s economic recovery / Economic developments / Recession update / Stubborn inflation / Central bank priorities
• China’s recovery / Pandemic update / Ukraine war / Strong economic data / New growth forecasts / Less enthusiastic economic data / Recession watch / Stuttering inflation / Central bank worries / Geopolitics
• Ukraine war threatens to intensify / China’s economy in recovery / Economic signs of strength / Recession risk still elevated / Inflation receding / Central banks slowing / Housing stabilizing?
• A run of good news – but now too much optimism? / COVID-19 wave in China and economic update / Economic trends / Recession musings / More inflation good news / Central banks finishing rate hikes / Debt ceiling complications in U.S. / Economic risks for Japan
• COVID-19 developments / Chinese economy / Ukraine war / Oil forces / Economic trends / Happy inflation trends / Revisiting productivity assumptions / U.S. political update / A few climate change figures
• Year in review; 2023 preview / Pandemic wave / China’s pandemic about-face / Economy in focus / More good inflation news / Central bank decisions / Society in decline? / Canadian immigration
• Pandemic developments / Chinese economic suffering / Economic goulash / Inflation update / New oil rules
• Inflation eases / Midterms / China COVID / Mixed economic signals / Dollar reversal / Crypto disaster / Ukraine / Fiscal affairs
• Pandemic / Strong employment / Souring consumers / Recession pricing & timing / Inflation optimism / Central bank divergence / Market scenarios / Climate change
• U.K. stabilizes / Chinese meetings / Taiwan risk / Ukraine escalation / Economic trends / Inflation breadth & lags / U.S. politics / Human development
• Dollar strength / Pound problems / Fiscal sensitivity / Ukraine war / Chinese Congress / Economic developments / Geopolitics
• COVID retreats / Ukraine attacks / Inflation snippets / Economic developments / Canadian housing / Student loans / Recession tracking / Monetary tightening
• Inflation peaking / Falling recession risk / EM challenges / U.S. midterms / Peak population
• COVID / Wheat / Geopolitics / Inflation breather / End of cycle / Economic miscellany / U.S. fiscal / Monetary policy / Canadian rate sensitivity
• Markets rise / Russia food & gas / FX moves / Fiscal odds & ends / China’s economic whiplash / Inflation / Economic weakness / Rate hikes
• Inflation / Supply chains / Real-time data / Confidence to activity / Recession / Wealth effects
• Market rebound / Pandemic / Ukraine / Inflation peaking? / Looking for weakness / Central banks / Housing weakness / Inventories pivot
• Inflation / Falling economic forecasts / Rising recession risk / More central bank rate hikes / Improving supply chains / COVID-19 whiplash / U.K. stagflation / Cryptocurrency challenges
• Market reversal / Ukraine / Economic deceleration / Fewer inflation worries / Recession risk / Central banks / Peace dividend lost / China to stabilize?
• Inflation and recessions / Labour market tightness / U.S. economic weakness / 1940s parallels / Weakness in China’s economy / Housing risks
• Rising recession risk / China pandemic / Ukraine / Broad inflation / Long-term inflation / Great Resignation / Central bank error
• War in Ukraine / Russia's allies / Globalization / Goods to services / Supply chains / Central banks / Declining trust / COVID-19
• More Ukraine / Pandemic / China / Mixed economy / Inflation musing / Hawkish central banks / Recession risk
• Ukraine update / Pandemic revival / Monetary tightening / Recession risk / Fiscal support / Slower growth is good
• Russia-Ukraine implications
• Long-term pandemic outlook / U.S. economic strength / Mid-cycle update / Inflation optimism / Geopolitics / Hawkish central banks
• Omicron peaking / Another variant / Lockdowns ebb / Glum markets / Economic trough / Inflation / Central banks / Ukraine
• Understanding Omicron / How much economic damage? / Hawkish Federal Reserve / Real-time economic data weakens / China
• Omicron / Hawkish central banks / Economy to weaken / China / Inflation / Supply chain
• Omicron / Rising restrictions / Good econ data / Downgrading forecasts / Canadian consumers / U.S. politics / Inflation and central banks / BC flooding update
• B.C. floods / COP26 / High inflation / Oil outlook / Workers > Capital?
• COVID rising / New treatments / Mid cycle / Hawkish central banks / U.S. accelerates / Canada slows / Supply chain problems / Inflation heat
• China slowdown / Supply chain eases / Inflation pressures / Business travel & congestion / Labour vs capital
• Adverse markets / Bye zero-COVID / No shutdown / No stagflation / UK shortages / BoC mandate
• China roundup / Elections / Natural gas / Supply chain / and more
• Asian manufacturing / Ebbing growth / Employment resilience / No taper tantrum / Chip shortages / Canadian election
• COVID-19 progress / Downgraded forecasts / Hawkish Fed / Strong households / Inventory reversal / Inflation checkup
• Delta confusion / Early cycle / Economic deceleration / Inflation calm / Great is bad?
• Delta variant / U.K. experiment / Inflation rises / U.S. slowing / Inventory worries / Fiscal plans / Office occupancy / Geopolitics
• Infections rising / Good economy / Labour shortage / New businesses / Working from home
• Wave ebbs / Delta variant / New forecasts / Mixed economy / Hawkish Fed / Inflation update
• Cases decline / Delta variant / U.S. recovery / Inflation musings / Corporate taxes
• Third wave retreats / Comparing waves / April economic weakness / Globalization / Geopolitics
• Third wave / Spiking inflation / Commodity supercycle? / U.S. recovery / N.A. housing affordability
• Falling infections / More vaccines / Mixed econ data / U.S. fiscal plans / Structural changes
• Third wave fading / Rapid Cdn vaccination / UK joins economic party / More inflation / Productivity boom ahead?
• Third wave / Vaccine progress / Economic developments / A cloud from China / Expansive Canadian budget
• Third wave / Rapid vaccinations / Good econ news / Europe's underperformance / India / Non-COVID deaths
• Third wave / Stalled reopening / Vaccines fly / Economies rebound / Markets and the cycle / Housing / EM vs DM
• Third wave / Vaccines / Good economy / Inflation worries / Higher yields / U.S. fiscal update
• Infections / Reopening / Vaccines / Good economy / Higher yields / Cdn competition / Low probability
• Real-world vaccine success
• Further COVID improvements
• Falling infections and new vaccines
• Variants, vaccines and downgraded forecasts
• Swirling events
• A New Year begins
• Planning for a better 2021
• North American economies kept growing in November
• More vaccine positives and November economic damage
• Europe is finally peaking, vaccine news and wobbling economies
• U.S. election, vaccine efficacy and COVID deterioration
• COVID-19 and the U.S. election
• COVID-19, the IMF, China, the election and more
• Vetting different COVID-19 strategies
• Economy grinds forward amid second viral wave
• COVID-19, trade and tracking headwinds
• COVID-19 and stalled human development
• COVID-19 and other natural disasters
• COVID-19 and vaccines
• COVID-19 back to school
• COVID-19 peaking?
• COVID-19 continues
• Optimizing the COVID-19 response
• COVID-19 continues to impact U.S.
• COVID-19 infections mount
• The economic recovery from COVID-19 continues
• COVID-19 heats up again
• The COVID-19 recovery presses ahead
• COVID-19 refinements
• COVID-19 good news
• COVID-19 recalibration
• Restarting too soon?
• COVID-19 effects to linger
• COVID-19 exit strategies beckon
• COVID-19 may be peaking
• What’s new with COVID-19
• COVID-19 remains the focus
• More about COVID-19

 

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