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"Pandemic Idiosyncrasies" - much of which appear to be automobile related - account for nearly all of the very elevated month-over-month inflation measure. Underlying inflation looks broadly in line with the past 25 year average.

My weekly client updates are written by myself and represent my own, independent, thoughts. Not surprisingly though, I am heavily supported by a number of research platforms both internal and external to RBC.

Reflecting this strength, all six individual indicators in RBC Dominion Securities' proprietary 'Recession Scorecard' are solidly "flashing green" for the economy.

No U.S. recession is in site and, per the message delivered at this week's Western Canadian Portfolio Management Conference, the stage remains set for an overweight in equities.

While pushed forward, the median expectation of Fed members' nonetheless remains that rate hikes are two years away. At the same time, the Fed's 2021 GDP growth forecast was raised to 7.0%. The outlook remains bright.

As the title suggests, this week's update will consist of quick-hit comments on these topics.

Collectively, the "Big 3" indicators are as strong as I've seen in my career. The recovery is further confirmed by the trend in weekly jobless claims which continue to fall.

As new infections continue to decline, traditional economic measures come back into focus. This week a look at perhaps RBC Dominion Securities favourite indicator of recession - weekly jobless claims.

The 5% hedge position taken in 2020 has recently been reduced by half. Further reduction, or outright elimination, of the remaining 2.5% is imminent.