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Will new case counts materially increase? Regardless of the answer, how will consumers re-engage in the newly opened jurisdictions? Also of significance this week are building tensions with China.

To the surprise of no one, economic data continues to be horrible owing to the Covid19 shutdown. Expect the Trump administration to begin aggressively shifting focus back to China. Economic sabre-rattling between the two nations intensified today.

Quoting the famed expression from former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan seems appropriate. How else to "rationalize" the current market? I present 6 credible possibilities which could derail this optimistic mindset.

As has been the case for about 10 weeks, there were many important developments this week. But let's step back and look at the bigger picture.

Also, thoughts are offered on the four paths I see back to economic normalcy

Only if you believe A) the economic rebound will be V-Shaped, or B) you shouldn't fight the Fed. Well, I don't believe in A. B is near impossible to quantify, but admittedly is an open question.

Two forces exerting historic economic impact are waging battle. The virus is having its day now. The Fed will assure the recovery is as strong as possible. The duration and shape of what comes between is the determinant of portfolio strategy.

That is the question and, frankly, no one knows. But for reasons expressed herein, I believe it will be deeper and wider than consensus expectations. Economists can't model what is happening right now. My strategy is summarized.

Even if the U.S. is "opened back up" by Easter (not likely in our opinion), the changes in consumer behavior will be lasting and profound. These will suppress the vigor of the recovery. That said, monetary and fiscal stimulus measures are massive.