A History of our Client Communications

The "Our Blog" section of this site is a historical catalogue of our personally written weekly client emails.  Clients might find this database to be a useful reference, while visitors and potential clients might like to review the consistency and depth of our general messaging.  Weekly updates from December 2018 forward to present day are currently available.  Older vintages will be added as we're able.



Trump Pushes China to the Fore

May 29, 2020 |Nick Scholte

As written two weeks ago, this is sure to be a recurring theme moving into the November elections. Meanwhile, Coronavirus new cases continue to grow in the developing world, while largely trending sideways in the U.S.

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Re-opening is Well Underway; it Will be Important to Monitor New Covid 19 Case Counts Over the Next Two Weeks

May 22, 2020 |Nick Scholte

Will new case counts materially increase? Regardless of the answer, how will consumers re-engage in the newly opened jurisdictions? Also of significance this week are building tensions with China.

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Re-Diverting Attention Back to China

May 15, 2020 |Nick Scholte

To the surprise of no one, economic data continues to be horrible owing to the Covid19 shutdown. Expect the Trump administration to begin aggressively shifting focus back to China. Economic sabre-rattling between the two nations intensified today.

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Irrational Exuberance?

May 08, 2020 |Nick Scholte

Quoting the famed expression from former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan seems appropriate. How else to "rationalize" the current market? I present 6 credible possibilities which could derail this optimistic mindset.

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A Quick High-Level Summary of My Current Portfolio Positioning and Strategy

May 01, 2020 |Nick Scholte

As has been the case for about 10 weeks, there were many important developments this week. But let's step back and look at the bigger picture.

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Oil Prices are a Real-Time Indicator of the Damage Being Rendered

Apr 24, 2020 |Nick Scholte

Also, thoughts are offered on the four paths I see back to economic normalcy

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Does an Above-Average Priced Market Based Upon PRE-PANDEMIC Earnings Expectations Make Sense?

Apr 17, 2020 |Nick Scholte

Only if you believe A) the economic rebound will be V-Shaped, or B) you shouldn't fight the Fed. Well, I don't believe in A. B is near impossible to quantify, but admittedly is an open question.

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The Coronavirus vs The Fed

Apr 09, 2020 |Nick Scholte

Two forces exerting historic economic impact are waging battle. The virus is having its day now. The Fed will assure the recovery is as strong as possible. The duration and shape of what comes between is the determinant of portfolio strategy.

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How Deep and Wide "The Valley"?

Apr 03, 2020 |Nick Scholte

That is the question and, frankly, no one knows. But for reasons expressed herein, I believe it will be deeper and wider than consensus expectations. Economists can't model what is happening right now. My strategy is summarized.

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As Has Been the Case For Some Time Now, We are Underweight Equities and Defensively Positioned; Opportunity Will Come, But a Retest of Recent Lows and Possible Newer Lows is Our Base Case

Mar 27, 2020 |Nick Scholte

Even if the U.S. is "opened back up" by Easter (not likely in our opinion), the changes in consumer behavior will be lasting and profound. These will suppress the vigor of the recovery. That said, monetary and fiscal stimulus measures are massive.

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