Economic Update by Eric Lascelles

Economic Update by Eric Lascelles

• Dec 2 - 15, 2025 >> December economic webcast / Economic data trickling out / Corporate management moving on from tariffs / Tallying economic tailwinds for 2026 / Non-recessionary rate cutting cycles / U.S. Social Security fears / Wage growth takes heighted importance / Capital still flowing into U.S. / Canadian economy weaker than it looks
• Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2025 >> Shutdown over – for now / Economic data run / Positive tariff developments / Gold shines in the spotlight / Why are oil prices so low? / A less-than-transformational Canadian budget / Will defence spending provide a fiscal lift?
• Nov 4 - 17, 2025 >> Fizzy markets / Shutdown continues / Cutting through the fog with alternative indicators / Tariff developments / K-shaped economy / China battles deflation / Emerging market economic momentum / Quick hits
• Oct 14 - Nov 3, 2025 >> Government shutdown / Tariff musings / Tariffs compress margins / Economic miscellany / AI boom cushions U.S. economy / Which countries have room to grow? / International themes / Skilled worker crackdown / Canadian recession concerns / USMCA expectations
• Sep 23 - Oct 13, 2025 >> Rate cutting resumes in North America / Rising government shutdown risk / Tariffs and inflation / U.S. payroll revisions mix good with bad / AI nibbles at employment / Undocumented immigrants avoiding workplaces? / What U.S. risk premium? / The end of quarterly corporate reporting? / Canadian infrastructure push
• Sep 9 - 22, 2025 >> Tariff update / Weak employment in context / Other economic data isn’t as bad / Fed outlook / International economic developments / Soft Canadian economy / Argentina’s economic transformation / Understanding stablecoins
• Aug 19 - Sep 8, 2025 >> Monthly economic webcast / Tariff hike in August / Tariff rate confusion / Inventory stockpiling exaggerated / Tariffs: a sales tax in disguise? / Tariffs after Trump? / Economic update / Inflation pressures / Earnings calls show relaxing tariff concerns / Business cycle scorecard / Updated economic forecasts / Quarter-century crossroads / Data quality and politicization concerns / BLS firing adds to data quality concerns
• Jul 29 - Aug 18, 2025 >> August 1 tariff deadline / Flurry of trade deals / Who is absorbing tariff costs? / U.S. economy holds together / More pressure on Powell / Our new demographic model / Critical technology advantage / Quick Canadian update / EU policy efforts / UK fiscal folly
• Jul 8 - 28, 2025 >> Tariff deadline extended / Other critical U.S. policy developments / Spheres of influence: U.S. and China / Update on Middle East conflict / “Dangerous world” department / U.S. economic data stabilizes? / Canadian insights
• Jun 17 - Jul 7, 2025 >> Middle East flares up / Economic fears are fading . . . but economic data now weakening / Tariff developments continue / A new front opens in trade war / Polarization in the U.S. appears to be rising / U.S. term premium continues to rise / Japan’s higher borrowing costs / Canadian inflation is rising
• May 27 - Jun 19, 2025 >> Monthly economic webcast / Tariff developments / Tariff economic impact so far / Tariff economic impact ahead / Fiscal developments
• Apr 30 - May 27, 2025 >> Refining tariff thoughts / Pressure on the U.S. Fed and Chairman Powell / Fretting over U.S. yields / Real-time economic data says… / Lower oil prices / Canadian election 2025
• Apr 8 - 29, 2025 >> Big tariffs / Plunging financial markets / Economic developments / Canadian corner
• Mar 25 - Apr 7, 2025 >> Reviewing and previewing tariffs / Economic data flow / A history of government spending cuts / Chinese public policy / Canadian round-up
• Mar 4 - 24, 2025 >> U.S. policy in motion / Here come the tariffs / Economic developments / Canada’s path forward
• Feb 11 - Mar 3, 2025 >> Tariff rollercoaster ride continues / Economic data remains good / Keeping an eye on artificial intelligence developments / Adding up damage from Los Angeles fires
• Jan 28 - Feb 10, 2025 >> Post-inauguration update / All about tariffs / U.S. expansionism / Economic data
• Jan 7 - 27, 2025 >> Global Investment Outlook / 2025 outlook recap / U.S. political considerations / North American employment preview / Stubborn U.S. inflation in perspective / Modest economic concerns bubble to surface / Recession signals in flux / Federal reserve backs off / Canada in focus
• Dec 17, 2024 - Jan 6, 2025 >> Key themes for 2025: 1 – Sustained economic growth / 2 – Vibecession to fade / 3 – U.S. exceptionalism to persist / 4 – Animal spirits unleashed / 5 – Tricky inflation / 6 – Rate cuts slow / 7 – “No landing” scenario on the table / 8 – Tariffs, but how much? / 9 – Chinese resilience / 10 – Geopolitics in focus / 11 – Choppy Canada / Plus Canadian economic issues
• Dec 3 - 16, 2024 >> December webcast / Economic developments / Economic upside index / U.S. election update / Promising U.S. housing / Canadian corner
• Nov 19 - Dec 2, 2024 >> U.S. election debrief / Favourable economic trends / Economy is not the stock market / Peak Canadian pessimism?
• Oct 29 - Nov 18, 2024 >> U.S. election countdown / U.S. activity holds up / High savings rates / Deteriorating demographics / Canadian immigration reversal / Quick hits
• Oct 15 - 28, 2024 >> Hurricane distortions / Falling recession risk / Smaller Federal Reserve rate cuts / Trump likelihood mounts / China stimulus / Oil price risk / Canadian economic update
• Sep 24 - Oct 14, 2024 >> Global Investment Outlook / Recession risk drops / Inflation trend improves / The U.S. Fed goes 50 / Yield curve un-inverts / U.S. election math remains close / Oil price weakness continues / Canadian wage mystery grows / China stockpiles commodities?
• Sep 10 - 23, 2024 >> The economic data see-saw / Central bank actions / Monetary policy asymmetry / USMCA re-opens in 2026 / Drilling into Canadian housing / Quick hits
• Aug 27 - Sep 9, 2024 >> Business cycle update / Fed rate cut nears / U.S. election update / U.S. economic check-up / Is the U.S. economy still overheating? / Geopolitical tensions rise further / Canadian corner
• Aug 7 - 26, 2024 >> Market mayhem / Quick hits / U.S. tariffs / Canadian shelter inflation
• Jul 25 - Aug 6, 2024 >> U.S. election upended / Executive powers shifting / IT outage aftermath / Fiscal health reckoning? / Improving inflation / What to fret about / Canada check-up
• Jun 25 - Jul 15, 2024 >> Canadian shadow economy Inflation fears ease / Fed policy rate remains unchanged / U.S. liquidity edges higher / U.S. economic slowdown continues / Consumer vignettes show rising worries / Political developments heat up / Weight-loss drugs evolve / Canadian economy continues to move forward / Canada’s shadow economy is growing
• Jun 11 - Jun 24, 2024 >> Consumer price sensitivity rises / Easing cycle continues / U.S. data evolves / U.S. economy has busy week ahead / U.S. election update / Gold prices rise / Financial stress rising for Canadian consumers
• May 28 - Jun 10, 2024 >> Easing inflation / Central banks in motion / Economic convergence / U.S. consumer worries / What’s really happening in China? / Japan’s symbolic threshold / Canada’s capital gains inclusion rate
• May 7 - 27, 2024 >> U.S. economy slows / What is a sustainable unemployment rate? / What’s driving insurance inflation? / Sifting through the latest buzz words / Tracking the business cycle / How have higher interest rates affected the economy? / Shifting expectations as Fed recalibrates / Putting wage growth in context / Quantifying geopolitical risks / U.S. election nears, but becomes less clear / What’s the focus of China’s third plenum? / Catching up on productivity and technology developments
• Apr 23 - May 6, 2024 >> Market anxieties / Why growth? / Revisiting forecasts / What happens next? / Big versus small businesses / U.S. immigration surge / Some Chinese themes
• Apr 9 - 22, 2024 >> Strong economic data / Why wasn’t there a recession? / Baltimore port obstruction / Do U.S. companies like higher rates? / Who rules the global economic roost? / Tricky inflation / Central banks still on pause / Canadian business bankruptcies / Canadian budget coming soon
• Mar 26 - Apr 8, 2024 >> Soft landing narrative remains intact / Inflation is falling gradually / Central banks diverge / Survey of various developments continues / Measures of economic output in conflict / Private credit isn’t driving the lending market / Where’s the cap-ex boom? / Puzzling mortgage delinquency rates
• Feb 27 - Mar 24, 2024 >> Soft landing in the spotlight / Puzzling economic disconnect / U.S. politics and fiscal affairs / Odds and ends / Disappointing inflation / Canada’s immigration boom
• Feb 6 - 26, 2024 >> Business cycle update / Soft landing odds rising / Do recessions require panic? / Monetary cycles and recessions not always causally linked / U.S. employment data send mixed signals / The number two returns to the inflation story / Central banks think rate cuts / China in four acts / U.S. education declining
• Jan 23 - Feb 5, 2024 >> Priced to perfection? / Two consumer tailwinds / Higher rates start to hurt / Survey versus hard data / Geopolitical risks / Shutdown averted, again / Republican race underway / U.S. election platforms / Canadian housing financial stress
• Jan 9 - 22, 2024 >> Soft landing versus hard landing / Supply chain back in focus / The Fed versus the rest / Imminent political events / Trend ambiguity / Economic developments
• Dec 12, 2023 - Jan 8, 2024 >> The everything rally / Strong data, weakening trendline / Happy inflation trend / Central bank rate cuts? / Busy election year ahead / Global minimum tax / De-globalization under the microscope / The promise of artificial intelligence
• Nov 21 - Dec 11, 2023 >> Short-term headwinds fade / Economic data worsens / Developed world weakens (ex-U.S.) / Consumer outlook is shifting / China’s tepid recovery continues / Inflation cooperates / U.S. fiscal burden may create drag / Who drives global growth? / Unions ascending?
• Oct 31 - Nov 20, 2023 >> Yields rise even further / Yield curve un-inverts / Recession probability rises / Markets signal economic weakness / Hamas-Israel conflict / Inflation cools? / U.S. economic data weakens / Canada wobbles / China rebounds
• Oct 3 - 30, 2023 >> Recession questions / New headwinds / U.S. 2024 election ahead / Assorted economic developments / Inflation backup / Hawkish pauses
• Sep 12 - Oct 2, 2023 >> Ukraine war update / Canadian wobbles / Mixed signals from U.S. economy / Consumer distress / German recession / Inflation odds and sods / Housing weakens anew?
• Aug 22 - Sep 10, 2023 >> China’s continued economic woes / China stimulus / Higher yields / Economic trends / Inflation hiccup / U.S. debt downgrade / Manufacturing construction boom
• Aug 1 - 21, 2023 >> Business cycle signals recession? / Recession risk falls / New growth forecasts upgraded / Inflation still falling / Central banks near the finish line? / A fiscal thought / Constructive political signals from China / India’s future promise / B.C. port strike – take two
• Jul 18 - 31, 2023 >> Economic weakness continues in China / Port strike in British Columbia disrupts trade / Economic data weakens slightly / Consumer tidbits show mixed spending trends / Recession musings lead to shift in our forecast / Inflation cooperates in June / Central banks continue raising rates / Society in decline? - Part II
• Jun 27 - Jul 17, 2023 >> Chaos erupts in Russia / Inflation is mostly cooperating / Central banks return to tightening / Stock markets rebound / China’s economy underwhelms / China’s youth unemployment soars / China’s local government debt rises / Canada enjoys growth advantage
• Jun 13 - 26, 2023 >> Technology and the economy / Debt ceiling asides / Fed liquidity programs / Contrarian on China / Softer economic data / Eurozone in recession / Rolling recession / Central bank surprise / Gauging national power
• May 30 - Jun 12, 2023 >> Debt ceiling solution arrives? / Banking stress today versus S&L crisis / Murky economic data persists / Productivity woes emerge / Recession musings evolve / Inflation still set to decline / U.S. infrastructure boom?
• May 16 - 29, 2023 >> COVID conclusion / Ukraine war reversal / Banking stress / Business cycle still end of cycle / More recession musings / Sticky inflation / Central banks nearing target / Debt ceiling draws near / Housing strength
• Apr 25 - May 15, 2023 >> Banking stress / Economic developments / Emerging market debt distress / Revisiting yield-curve recession models / Inflation cooperating / Tentative Canadian housing recovery / Fiscal burden
• Apr 12 - 24, 2023 >> Banking stress / Economic resilience / Waiting on inflation / Polarization and indictment
• Mar 28 - Apr 11, 2023 >> Banking stress / China’s economic recovery / Economic developments / Recession update / Stubborn inflation / Central bank priorities
• Mar 7 - 27, 2023 >> China’s recovery / Pandemic update / Ukraine war / Strong economic data / New growth forecasts / Less enthusiastic economic data / Recession watch / Stuttering inflation / Central bank worries / Geopolitics
• Feb 14 - Mar 6, 2023 >> Ukraine war threatens to intensify / China’s economy in recovery / Economic signs of strength / Recession risk still elevated / Inflation receding / Central banks slowing / Housing stabilizing?
• Jan 24 - Feb 13, 2023 >> A run of good news – but now too much optimism? / COVID-19 wave in China and economic update / Economic trends / Recession musings / More inflation good news / Central banks finishing rate hikes / Debt ceiling complications in U.S. / Economic risks for Japan
• Jan 10 - 23, 2023 >> COVID-19 developments / Chinese economy / Ukraine war / Oil forces / Economic trends / Happy inflation trends / Revisiting productivity assumptions / U.S. political update / A few climate change figures
• Dec 20, 2022 - Jan 9, 2023 >> Year in review; 2023 preview / Pandemic wave / China’s pandemic about-face / Economy in focus / More good inflation news / Central bank decisions / Society in decline? / Canadian immigration

 

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