Blog for Friday, October 11, 2024
I am thankful for the long weekend as I am so tired!
I’m sooooo tired! The puppy is killing me! Well, okay it’s not that bad.
Yes, we jumped in with both feet on another Weimaraner puppy. We got Montgomery (Monty for short) two weeks ago. He’s a good one. Super easy going so far although he is a feisty little guy and not afraid to try to tell Matilda who’s boss. Matilda has found herself a new play toy and he is happy to indulge her with his boundless energy.
Seriously though, I am doing middle of the night pee duty. He’s going to bed at 10 pm and I have moved from getting him up for a pee at 2 am to getting him up at 4 am now. I honestly think he can go longer as I am having to wake him and pull him out of the crate. It’s not like he is asking to go or wants to get up in the middle of the night. Neither do I. I can see a full night’s sleep in my future! Monty is a welcome addition to our home.
Denise and I, and the dogs are up in Collingwood this weekend. Being Thanksgiving it is going to be a weekend of winterizing the house (patio furniture has to go away, gardens cleaned up etc) and getting ready for the colder weather. It looks like it is going to be nice for a couple of more weeks, so I guess I have a little more time to get everything done. It sure seems like a lot to do each fall and spring. The Whitby house also has to be put to bed at some point.
Apparently, El Nina is forecast for this year, which may bring a cold and wintery December. I am looking forward to getting some skiing in this year and a big snow season would be a welcome change for us skiers. I read a good Apple News article on the long-term demise of global skiing and ski resorts with the impact of climate change. I can believe it. The ski club in Collingwood already seems to make more and more fake snow each year to get the season started. A white Christmas is almost unheard of these days.
I see my eye specialist next week for a checkup. I am feeling pretty good and my eyesight is not bad. Not completely back to 20/20 vision and I am happy that it has stabilized. I am back to more physical activity, which is a blessing for me. I am also taking a voodoo magic potion obtained from my Chinese herbal specialist that will help with recovery and strengthen my eyes. Danny is a miracle worker when it comes to this stuff and Denise and Addison have already commented on how bright and clear my eyes have become. Visiting Danny is like going into a Hogwarts lab with all the vials of weird herbs and twigs, but it works even if it tastes disgusting. It will be interesting to see if my eye specialist notices a difference.
I spent an afternoon taking Addison and some team members to their cross country race in the Durham Forest the other day. She did okay, placing about half way in the pack and bested her time from the race before. She is having fun and it is building important habits related to exercise and training that will last a lifetime. Being there was really fun for me as it brought back a whole lot of memories when I ran cross country for O’Neill Collegiate back in the day. My best race was my last high school race at the Ontario Championships when I beat everyone from the Central Lake Ontario region and finished 18th overall. I was pretty happy and remember that day and race clearly. I was a big runner for many years. Not so much anymore as my knees and body can’t take the pounding anymore. I will stick with strength training and the Peloton. I also don’t feel the need to do a marathon or Ironman Triathlon, or climb Everest for that matter. I really just want to stay healthy, strong and injury free so I can continue to exercise long into my old age.
Addison turned 16 last week and promptly got her G1, first level license. We are navigating car insurance and driving schools at the moment. The process to fully drive is so different from when I turned 16. At that time, I wrote my 365, passed my physical driving test, and hopped in my dad’s big old beast of a car with my friends and headed north to party. Oh the times have changed.
Speaking of a party, investors are sure having a good one these days. It has been a nice run in the markets. The main concern is whether central banks can softly land the global economy and avoid a recession. The Federal Reserve in the USA seems to be doing well at this job. They cut rates a half percent a month ago and are expected to cut rates a little more slowly going forward. Employment numbers south of the border showed resiliency and recent inflation numbers were more-or-less in line with expectations. Recent data lends investors to believe that the Feds will ease up on cuts and not come with more large sized half point cuts. The USA market is the largest in the world and remains the primary focus for most investors.
In contrast, the Canadian economy continues to underperform with a below-trend growth rate and rising unemployment rate. With inflation already within the target range and expected to head lower still, there’s little in the way to stop the Bank of Canada from making faster and larger rate cuts.
As a result of this, RBC Economics is forecasting two back-to-back 50 basis point cuts in October and December before returning to slower 25 basis point cuts at every meeting after that. They expect the overnight central bank rate will reach 2% by July 2025. That is a big change to prior forecasts and if it comes to fruition, it would be very good for Canadian consumers and those with mortgages coming due in 2025 to 2027.
The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at every meeting until May 2024.
As for the USA election, the markets don’t seem to be paying too much attention to it. My view is that investors believe it is going to be pretty much status quo post-election in the sense that neither party wins an outright majority in the Senate, the House and the Whitehouse. If one party does have outsized results and wins a majority, it may have an impact on investor outlook.
Investors are more focused on the economy and interest rates at the moment. A soft landing is a critical aspect for the markets to move higher. There are risks to the soft landing scenario happening and right now things look pretty good.
That’s it for now. I have to get going. Monty is getting his second set of shots this afternoon.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone. All the best to you and your family.
Cheers.
Miles…