Gobal Insight Monthly - January 

By Portfolio Advisory Group

In this month's issue: 

  • Global Insight 2024 Outlook highlights: Bonds are back - Whether the U.S. economy will finally tip into recession and with the return of bonds as an attractive complement to stocks in a portfolio, investors have much to consider this year. Our 2024 Outlook examines the opportunities and challenges facing markets and asset classes in 2024.
  • Global equity: More to come - Our view laid out in the Global Insight 2024 Outlook is unchanged. We expect new highs in most major stock markets early this year, most likely followed by a U.S. recession.
  • Global fixed income: The subtraction of all fears - As the fear of inflation dissipates, along with other concerns that hung over fixed income markets in 2023, we look at what investors can expect from what should be a lower rate environment in 2024.

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Global Insight Monthly - November 2023

By Portfolio Advisory Group

In this month's issue:

  • Are equity markets entering the AI era? - Two contrasting dynamics have shaped equity markets in 2023: while a handful of tech-linked behemoths have accounted for the lion’s share of gains, the rest of the market has followed a more tepid trajectory. A key driver of this trend has been the emergence of generative artificial intelligence. But despite the stock market’s AI enthusiasm, potentially transformative technologies often bring investors more questions than answers.
  • Global equity: Two sides of the same coin - Surging bond yields have brought good news to investors overall on a couple of fronts. But they’ve also come with negative effects for equity investors. Our assessment of these dueling narratives leaves us retaining our Market Weight positioning in equities within a global portfolio.
  • U.S. recession scorecard: Different month, same status - With some data still to come, there have been no sufficient changes this past month necessitating adjustments to the positioning of our seven U.S. recession indicators on the Scorecard.

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Global Insight - October 2023

By Portfolio Advisory Group

In this month's issue: 

  • New normal, old normal, or no normal? - With global interest rates achieving levels not seen in over a decade, some investors are beginning to wonder whether the era of zero and negative interest rates has ended. We explore what may be in store for the future of monetary policy.
  • Global equity: A narrowing path - While stock markets are likely to push through the recent consolidation phase and into a rebound rally, we see mounting pressures on the U.S. consumer narrowing the potential path to new highs. Our assessment of the hard vs. soft landing debate leaves us committed to stocks for the time being.
  • U.S. recession scorecard: Calm - The winds of change for the Recession Scorecard are at a standstill, but gusts could pick up as Q4 progresses.

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A registered account to help more Canadians enter the housing market

The tax-free first home savings account (FHSA) is a new registered account to help individuals save up to $40,000 on a tax-free basis to purchase their first home. The FHSA is a mix between a registered retirement savings plan (RRSP) and a tax free savings account (TFSA). Like an RRSP, contributions you make to a FHSA are tax-deductible; like a TFSA, withdrawals you make to purchase a first home (including the investment income earned) will not be taxable. This article provides a summary of key features of the FHSA.

Click here to learn more about the FHSA

Early 2023 tax tips

When the end of the year approaches, many individuals place a greater focus on tax planning to minimize their income tax liability. Beyond the end of the year, however, there are some areas of tax planning that often get overlooked. For example, there are tax planning strategies that may only be available early in the new year. With that in mind, this article summarizes some of the strategies that have deadlines in early 2023

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Tax Preparation

With the 2022 personal income tax return filing deadline fast approaching, this is a great time to see if you’re taking advantage of all of the tax benefits you may be entitled to. The following information outlines items you may want to consider when preparing your 2022 personal income tax return.

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The U.S. deficit, interest rates, and private sector interplay

The U.S. deficit, interest rates, and private sector interplay

February 07, 2025 |Atul Bhatia, CFA

Economics is rife with self-correcting mechanisms, and we give our thoughts on how that dynamic is likely to play out in the relationship between the U.S. budget deficit and longer-term interest rates.

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Tariffs’ leverage extends far beyond trade

Tariffs’ leverage extends far beyond trade

February 05, 2025 |Atul Bhatia, CFA

Tariffs can have many economic impacts, but we think investors should focus on the economic and political goals that are driving decision-making.

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Will investors see a pause in rate cuts, or the end?

Will investors see a pause in rate cuts, or the end?

January 31, 2025 |Thomas Garretson, CFA

Global central banks this month have offered something for everyone from further interest rates hikes in Japan to rate cuts in Canada and Europe, while the Federal Reserve remained motionless.

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Processing the U.S. legislative process

Processing the U.S. legislative process

January 30, 2025 |Atul Bhatia, CFA

Every administration enters office with aggressive policy goals. But a lot of give-and-take may be needed to turn goals into policy.

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Video: Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 3% amid U.S. trade uncertainty

Video: Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 3% amid U.S. trade uncertainty

January 30, 2025 |Josh Nye, Canadian Fixed Income Strategist

The Bank of Canada lowered its benchmark interest rate in January to 3% from 3.25% amid ongoing uncertainty over the threat of U.S. tariffs.

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Canada confronts U.S. protectionism

Canada confronts U.S. protectionism

January 29, 2025 |Joseph Wu, CFA

U.S. trade policy is taking a more restrictive turn with potential implications for Canada’s economy and equity market. We think resisting knee-jerk reactions to headlines is the best way to navigate what could be repeated bouts of market volatility.

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Is 2025 the beginning of a small-cap renaissance?

Is 2025 the beginning of a small-cap renaissance?

January 24, 2025 |Kyle Bergacker, CFA

After years of small-cap underperformance relative to large-cap counterparts, the tide looks to be turning. We look at why investors shouldn’t overlook this aspect of the 2025 equity outlook as small caps seem poised to return to form.

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Pay attention to triggers for Europe

Pay attention to triggers for Europe

January 16, 2025 |Frédérique Carrier

Due to structural headwinds, we downgraded European equities to Underweight in December. Yet a number of catalysts could occur in Q1 that could be well received by equity markets. We peruse the opportunities that may emerge in European equities.

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U.S. equity returns in 2024: Premium performance

U.S. equity returns in 2024: Premium performance

January 10, 2025 |Kelly Bogdanova

We pinpoint five reasons why U.S. equities capped off a banner year in 2024 and why investors were willing to pay for premium valuations. We also offer thoughts on the environment in 2025 and how to approach portfolio positioning.

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Trend & Cycle 2025 Technical Outlook

Trend & Cycle 2025 Technical Outlook

January 08, 2025 |Robert Sluymer, CFA

Studying trends and cycles can provide a more informed view of market dynamics. We look at potential pause points, market breadth, and key interest rate levels to gauge prospects for equity upside in 2025 and how to approach sector positioning.

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