| Good afternoon,
Lots of news this week on the recent death of the woman whose face has adorned commonwealth currencies since before The Beatles had heard of The Beatles. Although I’m personally not a huge royal fan (Irish roots and all), I’ll admit that she sort of won me over by the way she defined poise amidst her very human family of -- to put it politely -- dysfunctional clowns. I always thought they should get jobs at a burger place, with the Queen working the drive-through and Charles on sandwich board duty. I’ve done it. It’s a character-builder.
For the next few weeks, watch as the press portrays King Charles as a dignified sage. No worry. Before long the British press will lead the way by turning on him like a murder of crows at a polo pitch.
Perspective: How unusual has 2022 been for Balanced portfolios?
The chart below from RBC Global Asset Management, highlights how uncommon this year’s market experience has been so far. Annual returns are shown for a 60/40 portfolio dating back to 1928, when the queen was just a toddler. At its low, the portfolio was down 18.5% in 2022, which is one of the worst over that period.
Takeaways:
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| Deeper Reading for Insomniacs: As usual, I’m passing along some more work from our global insights teams this week.
Global Insight Weekly:
Full story here: Weekly
Highlights:
Global Insight Monthly -- September 2022 edition Here’s the full report: Global Insight And for quicker, segmented highlights and PDF’s, a more bite-sized view follows: The election effect A discussion of how the upcoming US midterm elections could impact the stock market. We examine historical equity market performance surrounding such elections, and what that might be ahead.
U.S. recession scorecard: Coming into focus Three of our seven leading indicators of a U.S. recession have reached levels that signal an economic downturn is likely, while the other four are at various stages with most moving from strong to weaker. We think the recessionary path forward is becoming clearer, but like a car accident, it’s the details that matter.
Global equity: Caution called for Equity markets are facing challenging crosscurrents. An upside capped by a continuation of central bank rate hikes set against the potential for further downside that could arrive in response to a probable recession in 2023 presents a risk/reward profile that argues for short-to-mid-term caution.
Global fixed income: A divergence in the force This is a fixed income environment we haven’t seen since before Obama took the White House. A divergence in global inflationary pressures between various regions will likely have differing impacts on the policy paths of major global central banks going forward.
Have a wonderful, sunny September weekend. This is maybe the best month of the year in this part of the world!
Mark
p.s. If you haven’t picked your apples yet, you’re late, and you may lose your tree to a bear. Been there myself a time or two.
MR |