This is the day that everyone is focusing on – and while I would never claim to predict the future with any glimpse of certainty, I can tell you that no matter who wins the US election, the market is planning on misbehaving next week.
So what should you do to prepare?
As outlined in our Monthly Global Insight released this week, market performance relies on many other factors than just simply who might occupy the Oval Office - and as such, we recommend investors remain unemotional (easier said than done) and stay the course by holding onto a full allocation to the market at your recommended strategic weight (which will vary depending on your goals and your written financial plan).
As outlined in our special report, Vote of Confidence, change in Washington happens slowly - and while newly elected presidents want to navigate the political waters like a speedboat, they quickly find out that the federal government pushes along more like a slower-moving supertanker.
Furthermore, while a new President can certainly begin to steer the country on a different course over time, changes in policy require partnership with Congress, often involve compromise, and usually materialize only gradually. The checks and balances built into the federal government’s framework, specifically the separation of powers into three co-equal branches (executive, legislative, and judicial), restrain the power of any single individual, including the President.
So, while past performance does not predict future results, you may find some closure in the following history recollections:
Ronald Reagan
Folks were tempted to reduced equity exposure or exit the market altogether due to their concerns about his supply-side economic policies and hawkish defense agenda. Had they done so, they would have missed out on a strong economic growth spurt and a meaningful 112% rally in the S&P 500 from the time he was elected until his successor was voted into office eight years later.
Bill Clinton
Critics of Bill Clinton’s health care and tax reform proposals reduced equity holdings when he was first elected and then watched the longest economic expansion and strongest stock market rally in U.S. history from the sidelines. All the while, Clinton critics’ biggest ideological concern—health care reform—was not implemented during his tenure due to congressional opposition.
Barack Obama
Elected in 2008 during the height of the financial crisis, some investors feared the Great Recession would soon morph into the second Great Depression. Instead, what materialized was a seven-year (and counting) economic expansion—albeit slow—combined with the second-longest and third-strongest equity bull market rally (so far) since the 1960s.
So what I’m really trying to say is this: do not allow the roar of the election coverage to get in the way of sound portfolio management. Avoiding making adjustments to your investment portfolios based on fears of what a particular candidate may or may not do in office and trust in the quality of your holdings for the long term. And while it won’t feel right at the time, if you can afford to do it, remember to be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.
For a copy of the full report, please email me directly.
With so much going on and information coming at us from every angle, it's sometimes hard to keep your finger on the pulse of what's happening. In an effort to keep you in-the-know and provide you with some conversation nuggets for the weekend, I've compiled the following hit list to fill your conversation pipeline.
Now you are in-the-know with Word on the Street.