Triple Weird

June 13, 2014 | Dian Chaaban


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Today is Friday the 13th (the only one in 2014), a full moon (the first one on this day since October 2000) and the Liberals have won a majority government for the first time in years. Defying almost all predictions, even Wynne herself seemed taken aback by the magnitude of her win (by the way, also making her Ontario’s first elected female premier).

 

I attended a Women of Influence luncheon yesterday to hear the stylish Bonnie Brooks speak (I didn’t realize how familiar her voice was until I heard it live) and even she made a point to remind all of us to vote – with about 50% of Ontarians voting, the Liberal party claimed their majority with 59 seats (holding 38.6% of the popular vote) while Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives elected only 27 seats (31.2% of the vote - a gap far wider than predicted in public opinion polls) and the NDP with 21 (24.0% of the vote). Everyone has their own opinion as to how this cookie crumbled, so you can read more here.

 

Speaking of the unexpected, May was a good month, further emphasizing my note from May 16th about how the ‘sell in May and go away’ trading adage is nothing more than a rhyming misdemeanor. The S&P/TSX Composite was only down -0.4% in May and is up 9.5% YTD. Similarly, the S&P 500 Index was down -0.3% in May and is up 8.6% YTD.

 

Taking a deeper look at stock market data for the last 40 years, the myth is further debunked, suggesting that investors would only have been better off "selling in May and going away" 36% of the time – not the type of odds I’d be betting on – even on a superstitious day like today…the occasional calendar quirk revives old fears of bad luck and calamities ranging from car accidents to stock market crashes…and look at that, the market is up today.

 

These instances offer another reminder that a financial plan guiding your investments on the foundation of diversification and asset allocation will give you the peace of mind that you won’t get from trying to avoid werewolves on a full moon (some people actually wear garlic when the moon is full to avoid werewolf encounters). The Full Moon rises tonight and the next one won’t happen until August 13, 2049, according to NASA.

 

Enjoy the weekend and happy Father's Day to all of the Pops out there - especially Norm, Dave & Cam.