According to popular belief (and this article), Friday the 13th really can be unlucky. For as long as we’ve lived, Friday the 13th has been considered an unlucky day – but why? Is it actually cursed by some higher power or are the misfortunes of our usual day-to-day life just more pronounced because we’re expecting it? For example, did my heel get stuck in the grate today because it’s Friday the 13th or because I shouldn’t be walking & texting? It’s probably the latter…

 

I’d say it’s a combination of both – but here are 3 ways that this article suggests Friday the 13th is unlucky:

 

1. It’s bad for business - superstitious people may avoid flying, keep of busy roads or just stay at home altogether; the estimated loss of business costs the U.S. economy almost $1 million.

 

2. Traffic accidents go up - the day has been linked to a rise in the number of traffic accidents. A 1993 study published in the British Medical Journal recommended people stay home, finding that the risk of being hospitalized after a traffic accident increased 52% on Friday the 13th. The results were echoed again in a 2000 study.

 

3. Stock markets go down - A “Friday the 13th effect” on the stock market was suggested by economists Robert Kolb and Ricardo Rodriguez in 1987, who found that returns were significantly lower on Friday 13th than on other Fridays. Two years later, Kolb and Rodriguez’s theory seemed to hold true when the stock market suffered a mini crash on October 13, 1989. But subsequent research disputes the association.

 

Some may say that “Friday the 13th effect” symptoms were prevalent today as North American markets fluctuated on economic data and continued speculation on the timing of the Fed’s rate liftoff. The S&P500 was led lower by Technology and Consumers while the TSX was dragged down by Financials and Consumers. In fact, the entire week was “unlucky”; the S&P 500 fell 3.6% and Dow Industrials fell 3.7% for the week. The TSX dropped 3.5%. Both major crude oil benchmarks declined 8%, taking TSX energy stocks down 5.5% and S&P energy down 6%.

 

But, that was just this week. Last week we were in the green and fluctuations such as this are what you would expect out of a market reacting to bad news headlines every other week. Canadian Banks on the other hand been behind the eight ball all year with the S&P/TSX Bank Index down 12% from its 52-week high. While Canadian banks are trading at modest valuations from a historical perspective, the next few quarters remain difficult to gauge and leaves us somewhat cautious on the group in the near term. This is yet another great time to advocate for a globally diversified portfolio (Europe is showing signs of vibrancy, U.S. equities are poised to resume their bull market run and deliver attractive returns in 2016 and China’s IPO market back in business) and a suggestion to think about reducing your exposure to Canadian banks while considering what to toss during your tax loss harvesting.

 

• Click here for our full report on Canadian Banks: Recession Headwinds.
• Click here for a handy article about Capital Losses and Tax Loss Selling.
• Click here to learn about all those who suffer from paraskavedekatriaphobia (that’s the fear of Friday the 13th).

 

PS – There will be no WOTS next week as I’ll be away on Thursday & Friday at our firm’s President Club Recognition Conference.