Is it time to call the World Police?

August 11, 2017 | Dian Chaaban


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Our very own Matt Barasch (RBC Capital Market’s Canadian Chief Equity Strategist) co-hosted BNN this morning at 8AM to discuss his latest report: Geopolitical Problems - Is it time to call the World Police?

 

In case you missed it, you can click here to watch him in action or read further for a summary of his report:

 

  • Tensions between the US and North Korea have reach a heightened level that appears to have roiled markets over the past few days.
  • We offer no view on how this may play out, as we are not geopolitical experts; however, we think investors can take some guidance from the geopolitical events of the past six decades to gain some understanding of how markets have typically dealt with “dislocations” such as this.
  • We acknowledge that this time could be different, as most events that we will use for comparison’s sake do not involve the threat of nuclear war (although some have).
  • The seven events that we have identified for comparison are the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Six- Day War, the Tet Offensive, the Yom Kippur War, Gulf War I, 9/11, and Gulf War 2. We acknowledge that none of these may be comparable to the current situation, especially with the threat of nuclear conflict bandied about; however, we think there are some interesting takeaways nonetheless.
  • Our key takeaway would be that the impact on stocks is far greater in the lead-up to conflict (S&P/TSX average drawdown of 8%, S&P 500 10%) than it is when the bombs begin to fall.
  • In fact, the actual beginning of conflict has often marked “the beginning of the end” in terms of poor market performance, with both the TSX and the S&P 500 generating modest average gains when risks are arguably at their greatest. We add that some have been followed by prolonged bull markets, while others have helped to prolong ongoing bear markets.
  • We also look at the performance of gold during most of these events. The bottom line is that gold generally performs as expected, providing a worthwhile hedge against geopolitical risks.

Click here to request the full report. You may also find this timely guide of the North Korea Crisis put together by The New York Times to be of interest.

 

With so much going on and information coming at us from every angle, it's sometimes hard to keep your finger on the pulse of what's happening. In an effort to keep you in-the-know and provide you with some conversation nuggets for the weekend, I've compiled the following hit list to fill your conversation pipeline.

 

Now you are in-the-know with Word on the Street.

 

Enjoy the weekend,

 

D.

Dian Chaaban
Investment & Wealth Advisor
416.842.4234


 

Market Minute

 

In this week's Global Insight:

 

  • MKT Update: Canada’s TSX is holding up a bit better so far this week, down 1.2% vs. the S&P 500’s decline of 1.6%.
  • Geopolitical Knots: Geopolitical risks are back as the saber rattling between North Korea and the U.S. could have implications for markets until the tension unwinds. We explain how investors should approach decision-making and how geopolitical risks should factor into portfolio positioning. (pg 1)
  • Canada section – We preview earnings reports for the Canadian banking industry. While headwinds linger, they may “catch a bid.” We also discuss important differences between the Canadian midstream and pipeline sector compared to U.S. peers. Finally, we highlight recent trends in homebuilding. (pg 3)
  • Other Regional Developments: Signs the U.S. equity market’s momentum is slowing; How euro strength affects Europe’s second-half outlook; Spotlight on two of Asia’s telecom giants. (pgs 3-4)

 

Click here for the Global Insight Weekly.

 

 

 

In Focus this Week: August Economic Outlook

 

Eric Lascelles' August Economic Outlook | Economic indicators still point to robust global growth as global trade has picked up, risk appetite has risen. U.S. equities have hit record highs and credit growth is revived, despite geopolitical tensions.

Learn more in this month’s Economic Outlook Webcast with Eric Lascelles, Chief Economist, RBC GAM, as he discusses the business cycle, how the U.S. labour market has been progressing and how competitiveness has changed among countries in the last several years. | Read more here

 

 

 

Strategy of the Week

 

Estate planning for blended families | To make planning for blended families as uncomplicated as possible, it is important to communicate expectations. Be open with everyone who has a stake in the planning and discuss everyone’s needs and desires. It is better to have difficult conversations upfront and avoid unfounded assumptions, than to deal with conflict down the road as a result of a lack of communication | Click here to request the full article.

 

 

 

Market Movers

 

Provincial Power

The province of British Columbia is going to legal battle. The new NDP government announced that they'd be joining the fight against the Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project. The provincial government joins a large group comprised of nearly two dozen conservationist groups and First Nations who are committed to stopping the project in its tracks. B.C. Environment Minister George Heyman and Attorney General David Eby made the announcement yesterday, saying they would be seeking outside legal counsel that would allow them to formally back the challenge. Hearings are expected to begin in federal court this fall.

Read more here | CBC

 

Climate Change + NAFTA

Climate change has always been a big issue for Canadians and the Canadian government, so there's no doubt it'll play a big role in our NAFTA re-negotiations. Unfortunately, Trump doesn't share our perspective, and while his own government's assessment may have given us some leverage when it comes to prioritizing fighting global warming, it won't matter if POTUS buries the information. Trudeau has made it very clear that he wants climate change to be an integral part of the new NAFTA, including reducing emissions and shifting to a low-carbon economy.

Read more here | CBC

 

Friendly Competition

Netflix stocks fell in opening trading yesterday on the heels of the news that Disney will be pulling its content from the streaming service and launching a rival platform of its own. The move marks "an entirely new growth strategy" for Disney—the studio behind mega-hits like Frozen, Pirates of the Caribbean and yes, even Star Wars. The big concern for Netflix, according to experts, is that other studios may follow Disney's lead by pulling their content and launching a competing service. Disney plans to launch its streaming platform in 2019, debuting it in the U.S. before taking it global

Read more here | Forbes

 

Netflix Makes Its First Acquisition

Netflix Inc. announced its first-ever acquisition, snapping up a comic-book publisher and pushing a strategy that has also been popular with major Hollywood studios for years: Superheroes. Netflix agreed to buy Millarworld, the publisher behind characters and stories like “Kingsman” and “Old Man Logan,” for an undisclosed amount, the company said Monday in a statement. Netflix and Millarworld founder Mark Millar will jointly produce films, series and children’s shows based on comic-book characters for the streaming service, while the publisher will also continue to make comics under the Netflix label. Millar, who runs the company with his wife, Lucy, previously developed comics for Walt Disney Co.’s Marvel that inspired the first “Avengers” film, “Captain America: Civil War,” and “Logan,” the statement said.

Read more here | Bloomberg

 

Hyperloop-not

When Elon Musk gave the idea for a super-fast transportation system to the world via a white paper in 2013, he said he was too busy to do anything with the hyperloop concept himself. A number of startups have since been working to make the Tesla and SpaceX CEO’s notion a reality. But Musk has apparently found some time on his schedule—he indicated in a tweet last month that he was working on a Washington, D.C.-New York hyperloop line. The billionaire’s unexpected entry into the hyperloop business could threaten the ambitions of three startups, which have raised about $200 million combined from venture backers.

Read more here | Bloomberg

 

Secret Brands

The company is selling products under a slew of other brand names, an analysis of trademarks suggests. While the e-commerce giant sells batteries and power strips with the tag AmazonBasics, it’s using names like North Eleven, Beauty Bar and Strathwood for clothing, cosmetics and furniture respectively. The tactic may be a recognition that brand identity rarely travels well across multiple unrelated categories—consumers probably don’t want to buy earphones and armchairs bearing the same label. Amazon could also be trying to create the illusion of choice

Read more here | Quartz

 

 

Current Events & Politics

 

 

Kenya Elections Hacked

In Kenya, early election results were thrown into doubt after claims that the electoral commission’s servers were hacked. The opposition leader, Raila Odinga, alleged that the hack was carried out to give the incumbent, Uhuru Kenyatta, a significant lead.

Given the country’s history of postelection violence, Mr. Odinga’s comments renewed fears of deadly unrest.

Read more here | NYT

 

Drought Shortages

Drought has led to acute shortages of food and water in the Horn of Africa, and thousands have fled. At least 50 migrants fleeing Ethiopia and Somalia drowned this week after a human smuggler threw them into the Arabian Sea en route to Yemen — itself one of the world’s most dangerous war zones. Survivors, above, said the smuggler pushed them out to sea when he saw some “authority types” near the coast. “This is shocking and inhumane,” said a U.N. aid worker.

Read more here | NYT

 

Science breakthrough

In a bold scientific step that helps open the door to organ transplants from animals, researchers at Harvard and a private company have created gene-edited piglets cleansed of viruses that might cause disease in humans. The advance, reported on Thursday in the journal Science, may make it possible one day to transplant livers, hearts and other organs from pigs into humans, a hope that experts had all but given up.

Read more here | NYT

 

N3vSrM1^d!

Everything you’ve been told about choosing a password is wrong—or at least unhelpful. So says Bill Burr, the bureaucrat who wrote the rules that went on to become the standard at most workplaces. His 2003 paper on the subject recommended the use of special characters and frequent changes. New U.S. federal guidelines scrap those requirements. Long, easy-to-remember phrases now get the nod over crazy characters, and users should be forced to change passwords only if there is a sign they make have been stolen, says NIST.

Read more here | The Wall Street Journal

 

North Korea releases imprisoned Canadian pastor

North Korea randomly released Canadian pastor Hyeon Son Lim after holding him for more than two years in a detention facility. The Canadian citizen was released on "sick bail" for "humanitarian" reasons. The 62-year-old was originally arrested for "crimes against the state" and had been sentenced to life in prison for his actions. Hyeon Soo Lim, a pastor with the Light Korean Presbyterian Church of Mississauga, was sentenced in December 2015 by a North Korean court to life in prison at hard labour for what it called crimes against the state.

Read more here | Reuters

 

O, So Delicious

She's long been an inspiration to many who are looking to lose weight and get fit, and now Oprah Winfrey is taking her knowledge to the supermarket aisle. Launching this week, "O, That's Good" is a line of healthy refrigerated side dishes and soups created by Winfrey herself in partnership with Kraft Heinz. The idea came to Oprah on her most recent health kick when she decided to mix mashed cauliflower with a bit of mashed potatoes to improve the taste. The new line takes that learning and applies it to other dishes, including a creamy parmesan pasta that replaces some of the cheese with a white bean puree and a broccoli cheddar soup that's infused with butternut squash. All the items are made without artificial flavours or colouring and 10% of the profits will go to fighting hunger.

Read more here | CNBC

 

Shocking Finish

Eighteen-year-old Canadian tennis star Denis Shapovalov pulled off quite the upset yesterday at the Rogers Cup, beating superstar Rafael Nadal in a third-set tiebreaker. After falling in the first set, Shapovalov rebounded to take the last two sets 6–4, 7–6 (4). Shapovalov was obviously elated with the win, falling to the court and covering his face to hide his emotion. The young Canadian called it a "dream come true" saying it's "what I dreamed of all my life growing up, playing guys like Rafa [Nadal], Roger [Federer], Andy [Murray]." Speaking of Federer, he defeated David Ferrer in three sets while women’s number one Karolina Pliskova advanced to the quarterfinals.

Read more here | CBC

 

Inside the Lines

It has been an IAAF World Championships full of misfortune for the Canadians. Toronto native Aaron Brown ran his season’s best at 20.08 seconds in his 200-metre heat yesterday, but when the 25-year-old speedster turned to see his time, the scoreboard flashed “DQ.” His time would have been the second fastest of the day, but Brown stepped on the inside line of his lane and was immediately disqualified. Athletics Canada filed an appeal but the ruling was upheld. The disqualification comes just days after injuries sidelined Olympic medallists Andre De Grasse and Derek Drouin.

Read more here | CBC

 

Cheap Trick

Imagine spending millions on a mega mansion only to find out that parking is extra? That's exactly what happened to families living in Presidio Terrace, who recently found that out that someone bought one of the main streets of their affluent neighbourhood (and its accompanying public areas, including sidewalks and "common ground") for only $90K. In order to recoup their investment, the buyers are contemplated charging residents for street parking—and the residents are losing their minds over it

Read more here | CNBC

 

Trial By Error

In case you haven't heard, one of the biggest pop stars in the world has spent the last few days in a federal courtroom. Taylor Swift is embroiled in a legal battle with former DJ David Mueller. who was fired from his job for allegedly groping the singer at a meet and greet and is now suing her for $3 million in damages. Swift, in a somewhat grand gesture, is countersuing him for $1 to serve as an example for sexual assault victims. The star took the stand yesterday and very firmly stood her ground.

Read more here | The Guardian

 

Attack of the clones

The rarefied world of polo has undergone a dramatic transformation that has flown under the radar for most people: cloned horses are now quite common on the pitch, with identical clones even competing against each other in the same match. So far, the big winner in the great clone race has been Alan Meeker, chief executive officer of Crestview Genetics. Since 2010 the 52-year-old Texas oil heir has created close to 100 horse clones valued at $500,000 to $800,000 each, depending on how long the company’s raised them. The clones have sired more than 375 foals, colts, and fillies priced at $50,000 to $250,000. “To say that you can get the same DNA and you can’t get the same results, we’ve debunked that completely.”

Read more here | Bloomberg

 

Netflix and Pay

The streaming giant announced yesterday it's hiking Canadian prices, boosting monthly fees to $8.99 for the basic plan, $10.99 for the standard plan and $13.99 for the premium plan. "From time to time, Netflix plans and pricing are adjusted as we add more exclusive TV shows and movies, introduce new product features and improve the overall Netflix experience, to help members find something great to watch even faster," the company said in a statement. The decision comes as Netflix faces mounting competition from other streaming platforms, like CBS All Access which announced this week it will be debuting in Canada early next year. The subscription increase will go into effect over the next couple weeks for existing customers.

Read more here | Financial Post

 

Chicken Art

Why was there a giant inflatable chicken near the White House this week? It was part art, part protest against President Trump. A California man spent months obtaining permits to erect the 30-foot chicken with an unmistakable golden coif. Taran Singh Brar, who criticized Mr. Trump for not releasing his tax returns, said he wanted the image to go viral.

Read more here | NYT

 

 

 

Upcoming Events

 

5th Annual Stocks, Suits, Scotch | More details coming soon...

 

 

 

Just for Fun

 

 

Sync with Solar

The NYT science desk rolled out a cool new feature that allows you to sync your calendar with the solar system. Sign up to add meteor showers, eclipses and other cosmic special events to your Google or iOS calendar. This weekend, you might be able to catch a glimpse of the Perseids. Learn more about the other meteor showers that will occur this year, and how to watch them.

Read more here | NYT

 

Special Guest

Stephen Colbert announced that he scored a prime scoop: This Monday he’ll be the first TV personality to interview Anthony Scaramucci, the short-lived White House communications director, since his ouster. The New York Times’s Late-Night Comedy Committee reports that it is “pretty thrilled about this one.”

Read more here | NYT

 

7 Ways to Minimize Food Waste

Food wastage in Canada accounts for $31 billion annually, and research indicates that some 47% of it is created on a consumer level. So what can you do on an individual level to minimize food wastage and save your hard-earned dollars?

Here are some suggestions for your consideration

Read more here | CBC

 

Morning Ego Boost

How nice would it be if you could wake up each morning to a recap of every nice thing anyone has ever said about you? Surely it would start your day on the right foot. According to a White House insider, POTUS starts his day with a folder filled with news stories that portray him in a positive light, nice social media posts from the public and sometimes, just a few flattering photos. While Trump's administration has vehemently denied the existence of said folder, the insider assured us that it really does exist.

Read more here | NYT

 

Your evil-twin job

Using U.S. Department of Labor data, the New York Times drew up this amusing calculator to determine what your “opposite job” is—the occupation that most uses the skills you use the least. Besides being an amusing exercise, exploring your opposite job has some value. Breaking a job into its component parts helps us look beyond the obvious and think clearly about the things that people actually do. For instance, does your job require a lot of social skills, as is true for social workers, priests and psychologists? You are in luck. Many of the jobs with the most employment growth in the last few decades require listening and sharing skills that you learn in preschool.

Read more here | NYT

 

 

 

 

 


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