Global Insight Monthly - June 2023
I am pleased to share the latest investment strategy report from RBC Wealth Management—Global Insight, which provides our latest thoughts on asset classes, the economy, and timely issues that impact investment strategy. This month’s topics include:
Worlds apart: Risks and opportunities as deglobalization looms
With trade relations more fragmented and the potential for a great power rivalry between the U.S. and China, it’s paramount to understand the new paradigm. This is an executive summary of the first article in a series exploring the trend away from globalization and its ramifications for investors, economies, and financial markets.
U.S. recession scorecard:
Tighter credit conditions add to the probability of recession - The trend of banks raising their commercial lending standards continues even as demand wanes, while a growing majority of banks are increasing their standards for consumer and auto loans as well.
Global equity:
What lies beneath - While it’s not out of the question for major markets to go on posting gains for some months yet, it is, in our view, a race against time before some negative forces take control for a while. For now, we continue to recommend a global balanced portfolio be Market Weight equities.
Real Estate - Special Housing Report
Influx of sellers speeds up Canada’s housing market recovery
Sellers are beginning to warm up to recovering housing markets. Early reports from local real estate boards unanimously show a material rise in new listings in May. This is good news for buyers who have been frustrated by historically low inventories. But in most cases, the rise in supply made only a small dent in tight demand-supply conditions. It will take a further large influx of sellers in the coming months to bring markets into balance. For now prices are rising..
Interest Rates
Bank of Canada remains proactive with 25 bp rate hike
Following a two meeting pause, the BoC resumed tightening last week with a 25 bp hike lifting the overnight rate to 4.70%. There were plenty of reasons for the BoC to restart its tightening cycle. GDP growth was stronger than expected in Q1 led by robust consumer spending, inflation surprised to the upside in April, unemployment has been steady near a record low for five straight months, and Canada’s housing correction appears to have run its course. We thought the BoC might wait until July to accumulate a few more data points and refresh its forecasts, but consistent with a proactive approach throughout this tightening cycle, Governing Council surprised the consensus (and us) with a 25 bp rate hike.
Read the full article here >
Advice Events - We want to hear from YOU!
After a brief pause from our regularly scheduled webinars, we are pleased to begin planning our next schedule of events for the remainder of the year. We are aiming to host one webinar per month on a variety of topics affecting your personal wealth and the overall economy / markets.
However, we want to hear from YOU on what topic you would be most interested in the coming months. These will be 30 - 45 mins informational webinars, with guest speakers that are subject matter experts on the respective topic. Our current options are noted below, and please click on the following link to vote.
- Artificial Intelligence
- Market / Economic Update
- Real Estate Market Update
- Crypto Markets & Digital Currency
- Financial Planning and Retirement Planning
- Wealth Transfer & Estate Planning
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This information is not investment advice and should be used only in conjunction with a discussion with your RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Investment Advisor. This will ensure that your own circumstances have been considered properly and that action is taken on the latest available information. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable at the time obtained but neither RBC Dominion Securities Inc. nor its employees, agents, or information suppliers can guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report is not and under no circumstances is to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. This report is furnished on the basis and understanding that neither RBC Dominion Securities Inc. nor its employees, agents, or information suppliers is to be under any responsibility or liability whatsoever in respect thereof. The inventories of RBC Dominion Securities Inc. may from time to time include securities mentioned herein. RBC Dominion Securities Inc.* and Royal Bank of Canada are separate corporate entities which are affiliated. *Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. is a member company of RBC Wealth Management, a business segment of Royal Bank of Canada. ®Registered trademarks of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under license. © 2022 RBC Dominion Securities Inc. All rights reserved.