RBC Global Insight: Midyear Outlook 2024
The fight against inflation. Recessions risks. Shifting central bank policy from rate hikes to cuts. And mounting U.S. debt lurks in the background, which can impact Canada. This special 2024 Midyear Outlook showcases RBC Wealth Management’s unique perspectives that can help to navigate the road ahead while identifying the catalysts and opportunities to optimize portfolios. Highlights include:
U.S. debt dilemma: No quick fixes and no catastrophes
Commentators frequently conflate the federal government’s debt with the nation’s—a critical mistake, in our view. We dig into how investors should be thinking about fiscal policy and the debt and discuss why neither catastrophes nor quick fixes are likely.
Global equity: Trees don’t grow to the sky
We don’t believe markets are finished moving higher. But thinking about risk appetite and having a plan for becoming more defensive when conditions dictate are things to contemplate in coming months. With stocks no longer compellingly cheap and investor sentiment increasingly complacent, we favor a cautious, watchful approach.
Global fixed income: The only certainty is uncertainty
The global monetary policy easing cycle has finally commenced. But how far it will run and for how long remain unclear. Regardless of the timing, or scope, of rate cuts, it’s clear to us that we have reached the point where yields are now likely to trend lower. We explain what we think the next step should be for investors heading into the second half of the year.
Regional commentary
Our regional analysts present their views of equity and fixed income markets, currencies, and commodities, as well as how to position portfolios.
U.S. Recession Scorecard: Clouding over
Our U.S. Recession Scorecard saw an important negative shift in May when a third leading indicator was re-rated to recessionary red. A fourth may undergo a similar shift in the next couple of months. Equity investors should be aware that risks of the U.S. economy slipping into recession in the coming months are rising.
Business Owner Presentation Series
Grow, manage and protect your wealth and your business
Presented by RBC Wealth Management and RBC Group Advantage
Please join us for this series of virtual presentations where we will discuss the services available through RBC for private wealth management and group saving plans for your employees.
RBC Wealth Management services are designed to help you maximize your returns while minimizing risk.
RBC Group Advantage delivers employee-focused financial benefit solutions. Well-designed Group Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP) and Deferred Profit Share Pension (DPSP) strategies help companies attract and retain top talent in their respective industries.
Virtual Presentation Series (Hosted Via Cisco Webex)
- Session 2: Thursday August 8th @ 12pm
- Session 3: Tuesday, September 17th @ 12pm
Note - All sessions will include the same content
Kindly RSVP by using the submission form in the link below or contact Abby Huang directly at 604-257-2540, and Webex link will be provided.
Canada’s Housing Market Update
Inventories rebuilding fast in Canada's largest housing markets
Transactions increased across the board from May with more buyers coming to the housing market. But buying was far from enough to absorb the new inventory that’s been rebuilding for months. Growth in new listings continued to outpace sales in Canada’s more expensive markets, and inventories are continuing to grow.
The influx of supply has shifted more of the bargaining power to buyers, who in some markets are still extracting price concessions from sellers.
Investing at All-Time Highs
Investing for the long term
There’s no way of knowing what lies ahead in the near term. What history tells us is that stocks tend to move higher over the long term. New highs are a normal occurrence and don’t necessarily warn of an impending correction. They may in fact signal that further growth lies ahead..
- Looking out just one year from each all-time high in the S&P 500, market corrections greater than 10% have occurred only 9% of the time.
- As we extend the time horizon, market corrections become even rarer. In fact, the S&P 500 has never been down by more than 10% at the end of a 10-year period following any of its all-time highs since 1950.
- Long-term investors have the advantage of an extended time horizon. Staying invested can help them stick to their financial plan
Financial Planning: Charitable Giving
Planned philanthropic giving can help create a beautiful legacy
Planned giving is exactly what it sounds like: making a plan now for a monetary gift in the future-often, but not always, after death.
There is no question that planned giving has benefits for the recipient charities, including stability of revenue and the ability to plan programming around that revenue. But there are also many advantages to donors, and their families. When instructions for philanthropic giving are included in a wealth distribution plan, it relieves the inheritors of a significant burden. They don’t have to question what the deceased would have wanted or worry that they got it wrong. They’re free to simply remember their loved one.
Complimentary Second Opinion Service
Helping your family build, manage and protect your wealth
If you’re a successful entrepreneur, part of a large family, or a high net-worth retiree/pre-retiree, you may have to manage financial issues that others don’t; This could include inheritances, assets in trust, complex tax planning, or a family vacation property. Perhaps you’d like to put your finances into greater context with your family’s savings, estate and business planning goals. Whatever your personal situation, we are here to help, with a comprehensive review that can ensure your wealth remains “all in the family.”
Our review process typically looks at both your investment portfolio and your overall wealth planning. This way, we can assess your financial situation in the context of your personal tax situation, savings goals, the time you have to invest and other factors such as your insurance coverage or charitable intentions.
This information is not investment advice and should be used only in conjunction with a discussion with your RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Investment Advisor. This will ensure that your own circumstances have been considered properly and that action is taken on the latest available information. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable at the time obtained but neither RBC Dominion Securities Inc. nor its employees, agents, or information suppliers can guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report is not and under no circumstances is to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. This report is furnished on the basis and understanding that neither RBC Dominion Securities Inc. nor its employees, agents, or information suppliers is to be under any responsibility or liability whatsoever in respect thereof. The inventories of RBC Dominion Securities Inc. may from time to time include securities mentioned herein. RBC Dominion Securities Inc.* and Royal Bank of Canada are separate corporate entities which are affiliated. *Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. is a member company of RBC Wealth Management, a business segment of Royal Bank of Canada. ®Registered trademarks of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under licence. © 2022 RBC Dominion Securities Inc. All rights reserved.