Mike’s Musings

In what follows, we outline a range of scenarios and how we’re thinking about the current oil price shock. 1. Higher oil will drive up inflation but the magnitude depends on the persistence of the shock Headline inflation has now exceeded 2% for nearly...

A Word from Mike Hello, Financial markets continue to navigate competing forces from corporate earnings, investor sentiment and economic data. Below, I share my perspective on recent volatility in technology stocks, the Canadian labour market, and evolving...

A word from Mike Hello, A range of developments continues to shape the investment landscape, with potential implications for the macro outlook. I discuss recent corporate earnings updates, monetary policy, and U.S. political risk in more detail below...

Overall, the story of Budget 2025 is as expected. There is big new spending and deficits that would be even larger without review savings. Buffers are slim against the two fiscal anchors of a balanced operating budget by 2028-29, and a declining deficit-to-GDP...

A new playbook for balancing bigger government with fiscal health We believe the context and composition of government spending matter as much as the quantum. Cyclically, our outlook has Canada avoiding a recession from the current set of tariffs, but...

Canada's population growth continues to slow since tighter federal targets on permanent and non-permanent residents with Q2 marking the weakest quarterly growth since the pandemic. As of July 2025, the population reached 41.7 million, reflecting a year-over-year...

There was further evidence of a recovery is taking hold in many housing markets across Canada in August, but local price trends still varied considerably with declines continuing in affordability-challenged areas where inventory has piled up. Early reports...

The trade war remains in its early stages, with U.S. tariff revenues trailing behind announcements into the summer. Nevertheless, import tariffs collected as a share of U.S. imports have already risen to their highest level since the 1940s.

Canada’s housing market showed further signs of recovery in June with home resales picking up for a third straight month on a monthly basis. But, prices remained lower overall with nationwide declines largely driven by softening in Ontario and British...