The Liar’s Dividend refers to a political leader blitzing so much bunk as to create a fog of confusion, from which he then harvests political and/or military gains. But the practice has a shelf life, as shown the subtle resistance that grew under the smothering blanket of socialist realism pressed onto Hungary’s post-WW2 film industry.

 

In the film, The State Department Store, a coyly-crafted scene features Hungarian townsfolk rejoicing on the arrival of a shipment of goods to the local store. A familiar scramble ensues as customers mob scarce supplies, but just as these tensions peak, several more truckloads arrive, and everyone walks away with their arms happily filled. Here the spectacle of this abundant surplus is so ridiculous that audiences had to laugh. And despite being clearly mocked, party sensors’ hands were tied -- the story was simply repeating the open lie about Soviet supply systems. Socialist realism indeed. (See Iron Curtain, by Anne Applebaum, chapter 14).

 

Not that I’m referring to any particular world leader with a big old Soviet hangover painted all over his face... But listen pal, you can cheat in cards, you can lie in the Olympics, and you can obfuscate world news flows, but my guess is that your people are not as stupid as they are wary. As you ought to be.

 

Commodities’ Post Olympic leap: (see chart below): Global commodity prices are on track for the biggest weekly rally in more than 50 years and Europe’s natural gas prices have hit a new record. The war in Ukraine triggers “exceptional moves” in raw materials from oil to wheat. This is one reason to stay invested, and busy, during such crises

 

 

Weekly Wrap:

 

European Union: Cohesion amid adversity

The Russian invasion of Ukraine puts lives and livelihoods at risk. We focus on how it could impact Europe’s recovery and look at some of the profound policy changes taking place in the EU as a result of the war, with an eye to positioning European equity investments.

 

Choppy U.S. market as investors look to weather geopolitical unrest – With the Russia-Ukraine conflict continuing to dominate the headlines, we have seen a significant divergence in performance across sectors. We discuss which have outperformed and which have lagged.

 

Regional developments: Choppy U.S. market as investors look to weather geopolitical unrest; Bank of Canada follows through with a 25 bps hike; Assessing Europe’s equity market fallout post invasion; Asian stocks fluctuate on Russia-Ukraine conflict

 

Read Full Article Here: Global Insight Weekly

 

I must admit that these are stressful times, most especially as I worry about all the innocent people hurt by the cruel reality of war. It’s difficult not to be driven to anxiety and distraction, even if I do take a measure of comfort in knowing that we’ve lived through such stresses before as a society, and probably will again.

 

Please do your best to enjoy the weekend.

 

Mark