Following recent signs of weakening labour market conditions in Canada and the U.S., central banks in both countries have decided to reduce their benchmark interest rates, resuming monetary easing cycles that had been on hold amidst uncertainty in the broader economic and trade policy backdrop. We discuss the decisions, the market reaction, and the potential implications in this economic update.
We are also proud to highlight our sponsorship of the SEED in two important ways. We are excited to be the presenting sponsor for Grow The SEED, the 10-year anniversary event on October 2nd celebrating the organization’s community-driven action for food security in the region. We are also proud to be sponsoring the Goals for Groceries night with the Guelph Storm on October 10th. We hope to see you there!
Economic Update
Rate Cuts
The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate by 0.25% at its meeting this week, a move widely expected by markets and the first cut since December 2024. A series of softer-than-expected labour market data over the summer heightened concerns over a potential growth slowdown, while recent inflation readings showed less tariff pass-through than previously anticipated, giving the Fed room to act to cushion against downside risks in the economy.
The Bank of Canada matched the Fed’s decision, reducing rates by a quarter-point. A high degree of USMCA compliance in trade flows and the removal of retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. has helped keep inflation in check, opening the window for the BoC to cut rates to support some trade-impacted sectors and a labour market facing rising unemployment.
However, the BoC offered little guidance on the future path for monetary easing, with officials stressing that they would be “proceeding carefully” in an uncertain policy and economic environment.
Bond yields
Markets had largely priced in the latest rate cuts, which helped push government bond yields lower in Canada and the U.S. over recent weeks. Short-term government bond yields (which are more sensitive to central bank rate decisions) have fallen steadily since mid-July.
Meanwhile, longer-term yields, which tend to be shaped more by broader growth and inflation expectations, also declined as markets weighed the prospect of weaker economic momentum ahead.
After this week’s rate cut decisions, however, short- and long-term yields have diverged slightly, with short-term rates generally holding on to their recent declines and long-term rates edging modestly higher. This pattern suggests that markets believe these proactive rate cuts could help prolong the economic expansion and maintain stable growth and inflation expectations over the medium term, which tends to prop up longer-term yields.
Economic implications
Broadly speaking, rate sensitive areas of the economy should be poised to benefit from easier financial conditions, with housing likely a primary beneficiary. In Canada, housing market activity has picked up recently with existing home sales reaching a 2025 high this month amid relatively lower prices and improved inventory dynamics. However, the sector continues to face some challenges, including affordability constraints, slowing population growth and broader economic uncertainty. Lower financing costs could provide a timely boost to demand in the Canadian housing market. Similar dynamics apply south of the border, where lower mortgage rates could provide relief in a market constrained by affordability challenges and muted builder activity.
Elsewhere, more cyclical segments of financial markets could also benefit from the tailwind of lower borrowing costs, including smaller-sized companies, more economically sensitive sectors and lower-quality corporate borrowers. Nevertheless, a risk worth monitoring is inflation, as an overly aggressive approach to rate cuts could lead to renewed concerns around inflationary pressures, a potential source of market volatility.
Takeaways
The evolving balance of risk between inflation and the labour market has led central banks to place a greater emphasis on keeping the labour market on steady footing. Along these lines, the resumption of rate cuts is aimed at countering downside risks, as slowing job creation has become more evident.
While easier financial conditions should provide broad support for the economy, there remains significant uncertainty over how far and how fast interest rates will fall, as central banks are also committed to maintaining inflation stability that is aligned with their long-term targets. We will be watching the future path of monetary policy closely alongside government bond yields as central banks navigate the complex tradeoffs between the labour market, inflation, and the broader economy.
Grow the SEED: celebrating 10 years of combating food insecurity
Over 23% of households in Guelph-Wellington cannot afford the food they need. This is where the SEED comes in: the SEED aims to rebuild the food system to be more equitable, sustainable, and community-led. Today, the SEED helps distribute millions of purchased and surplus foods, nourishing schools and empowering neighbours.
We are proud to sponsor Grow the SEED, a special anniversary event held on October 2nd at The Community Food Warehouse in Guelph. We are also proud to be sponsoring the SEED’s delivery truck and support getting food to those who need it most. You can learn more about the Grow the SEED event by clicking here.
Goals for Groceries – theme night for the Guelph Storm
On October 10th, we are proud to sponsor Goals for Groceries night in partnership with the Guelph Storm, in support of the SEED. We’ll be highlighting the great work the SEED does to fight food insecurity, selling ‘chuck-a-pucks’ to win great prizes, and sharing ways you can get involved. Doors open at 6pm for the game - we hope to see you there!
As always, we are available to connect with you personally. Please don’t hesitate to contact us at 519-822-2024 or elineskyschuett@rbc.com.