Waiting for Godot

Nov 18, 2019 |Dann Cushing

In the empty space that follows a deluge of new information, the behaviour of financial markets can often be quite telling....

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Grace Under Fire

Nov 04, 2019 |Dann Cushing

The balance of probabilities in equity markets has been to the downside since May:...

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Asking the Right Questions

Oct 01, 2019 |Dann Cushing

After a noisy summer for financial markets, each passing week in September has been helpful for refining the proper question to ask...

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Action, reaction

Sep 16, 2019 |Dann Cushing

It was a busy couple of weeks for pundits. Amidst the now normal, daily changes in trade policy, this summer’s one way decline in interest rates abruptly reversed. The reaction...

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Variety of Events Warrant Reassessment

Aug 18, 2019 |Dann Cushing

What an uncomfortable period we are in for global financial markets. First, a variety of small and idiosyncratic events loom with the threat of ballooning into something bigger...

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Halfway Through Earnings Season

Jul 28, 2019 |Dann Cushing

About a quarter ago, we put forward the thesis that the sudden deterioration in US trade talks had re-injured business confidence at a critical moment. In a global economy still recovering from a Q4 demand shock, the hit to confidence would create...

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Subdued before Q2 Earnings

Jul 14, 2019 |Dann Cushing

In the absence of other news flow, the investors focused primarily on positive signaling from the Fed – specifically on Jerome Powell’s testimony...

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Uncertainty Ahead

Jul 01, 2019 |Dann Cushing

Highlighting uncertainty in financial markets is typically a low-value-add comment – that is their whole reason for existence, after all. We are also acutely aware of the risks of confirmation bias. Nevertheless, there are enough tangible risks

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Core Questions for Financial Markets

Jun 15, 2019 |Dann Cushing

Equity markets rose 4%, recovering about half of May’s losses as we entered wait-and-see period. The core question for financial markets remains whether trade-inflicted damage on business confidence will take hold faster and/or outweigh the benefit o

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Divergence in the Bond and Equity Markets

Jun 01, 2019 |Dann Cushing

The two future paths currently being predicted by bond and equity markets are close to mutually exclusive; and the old, New York trading-floor saying is “the smart money is in bonds”

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