To my clients:
It was an up week for North American stock markets with the Canadian TSX finishing up 1.0%; the U.S. Dow Jones Index up 1.3%; and the U.S. S&P 500 up 1.5%.
“THE TIME HAS COME FOR POLICY TO ADJUST” – Fed Chair Jerome Powell in this morning’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium of central bankers.
With those words, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cemented expectations for a September rate cut which would be the first U.S. rate cut since the start of the Covid pandemic in early 2020. The size of that cut will now depend on incoming employment data – notably the U.S. monthly Employment Report two Fridays from now. As Powell also said, “we do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions." A 0.25% cut is seemingly certain, but should employment conditions continue to deteriorate, the preceding quote suggests a 0.50% cut is likely on the table also. With global Central Banks (ex-Japan) now seemingly in a coordinated rate cut cycle, support for economic and market conditions will grow.
My focus now as a Portfolio Manager will shift squarely to economic conditions other than inflation. Stabilizing and strengthening economic conditions will be what I want to see. Good news will now be viewed purely as good news, and bad news as bad - while this might seem obvious, the reality is that while inflation was the tiger waiting to be tamed, a strange paradigm existed whereby bad news was often treated as good news insofar as it portended possible declines in inflation. I’ll be thankful to move on from this strange epoch in economic history.
I’ll caution now that the market has come a long way over the past 1.5 years. While I do believe that Fed policy will no longer be a headwind to market results, there may well be some gyrations and sputtering as we enter this more normative post-covid economic cycle. Unless meaningful recession odds grow, I’ll be doing my best to look through whatever short term market pullbacks might arise. I’d encourage clients to do the same.
That’s it for this week. All the best,
Nick
Nick Scholte, CIM, FCSI
Senior Portfolio Manager
Scholte Wealth Management
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. │ Tel: 604.257.7569 │ Fax: 604.235.9950
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