To my clients:
It was a mixed week for North American stock markets with the Canadian TSF finishing up 0.2%; the U.S. Dow Jones Index down 0.6%; and the U.S. S&P 500 up 1.0%.
It’s the first week of a new month, and let’s be quick with the data releases: ISM Manufacturing beat expectations and improved month-over-month to a reading of 48.4 (although this continues the nearly uninterrupted 2-year string of contractionary readings for this indicator); the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (i.e. “Services”) missed expectations and declined month-over-month to a reading of 52.1 (continuing its own nearly 4.5 year string of predominantly expansionary readings…. good thing too since the services sector accounts for roughly ¾ of the U.S. economy); and, most importantly, U.S. hiring reaccelerated from a disappointing reading in October with 227,00 new jobs created in November. Further still, preliminary readings suggest that the U.S. economy is expanding at roughly a 3.3% rate in this the closing quarter of 2024. This is impressive.
What’s the take-away from the preceding? I’d suggest it’s this: that the U.S. economy continues to expand and that the most likely case at this juncture is NOT a recession; NOT a “soft-landing” (i.e. a slowdown without entering recession); but rather NO LANDING at all in that the U.S. economy, in aggregate, appears not to be slowing in any material way. This perspective is reinforced given President-elect Trump’s “nominal” (pre-inflation) growth agenda (the “real” post-inflation growth outlook is much murkier). I’ll be honest, the “no landing” outcome is not a scenario I would have anticipated when the year began.
I had a much longer weekly update planned with an in-depth discussion of U.S. vs Canadian productivity divergences (Coles Notes: U.S. productivity continues to improve; Canadian productivity continues to deteriorate), and a summary of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s thoughts on potential tariff’s in a Trump administration (Coles Notes: there are far too many “ifs” at this stage to take any meaningful action with respect to monetary policy which, incidentally, mirrors my own opinion about the level of equity/stock investment I maintain on behalf of clients), but I think I would direct clients to re-read the immediately preceding paragraph. Continued economic expansion facilitates corporate America’s continued ability to leverage this expansion into even higher profits. Could there be potential storm clouds in 2025? Of course, and I will be vigilant in monitoring for these possibilities. But, for now, I reiterate my intention to maintain portfolio stock exposure “as is” through at least Trump’s inauguration.
That’s it for this week. All the best,
Nick
Nick Scholte, CIM, FCSI
Senior Portfolio Manager
Scholte Wealth Management
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. │ Tel: 604.257.7569 │ Fax: 604.235.9950
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