In this issue:
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The U.S. Debt Ceiling
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Artificial Intelligence Headlines
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Global Insights: Special Report
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Chart Corner
On the investment side, the U.S. debt ceiling has been front and centre. While it hasn’t resulted in significant volatility beyond certain segments of the U.S. government bond market, it remains a near-term risk demanding swift resolution. The bigger concern is that the U.S. is on a path of ever-higher debt and deficits, raising questions about the sustainability of its financial standing.
The U.S. Debt Ceiling
The self-imposed U.S. debt ceiling, established in 1917, sets a legally defined limit on how much the U.S. government can borrow to pay its bills. This limit has been reached and raised over one hundred times. The debt ceiling often makes its way into the news when passing the required legislation is expected to be more difficult, typically when there is a divided government. This was the case, with Congress being divided between the Republicans who control the House of Representatives and the Democrats who control the Senate. The Republicans were citing a need for budget renegotiation before considering any increase to the debt limit. Meanwhile, the Democrats began negotiations with a firm “No” on any budget concessions. Although the recent agreement on the U.S. debt-ceiling has yet to make it through the House of Representatives, financial market participants have been exhibiting a generally risk-on tone as a result of a tentative agreement being reached. The debt-ceiling deal has also pushed the U.S. Government to limit their fiscal spending over the next two years, which some analysts believe will offer a tailwind to disinflationary pressures in the U.S. economy.
Artifical Intelligence Headlines
There has been excitement surrounding the potential capabilities that artificial intelligence can offer in society going forward. The wide-spread introduction of artificial intelligence platforms such as ChatGPT has been such a significant driver of tech and cyclical gains so far this year, that the technology heavy Nasdaq Index has generated nearly a (+25%) YTD total return.
The world is at an inflection point. After decades of close trade ties and economic progress, globalization is being unwound. With trade relations becoming more fragmented and the potential for a great power rivalry between the U.S. and China, it’s paramount to understand the economic realities of the new paradigm. This is the first article in a series exploring the trend away from globalization and its ramifications for investors, economies, and financial markets. Read More of our firm's Global Insights: Special Report.
~Shawn Milligan | Senior Wealth Advisor | The Milligan Private Wealth Management Team | RBCDS
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