Please pass the ice cream

January 26, 2022 | Mark Ryan


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With Love from Canada

 

This week, a spec of incredulity was flung high above the others – and there was some stiff competition there. As omicron spread across the earth like an Alberta grass fire, a singular Beijing citizen among the Olympic host’s 21 million was diagnosed with that most contagious variant. Enter the keystone hazmat team, who after a thorough investigation concluded that the virus probably came in the mail from Toronto.

 

Wait a minute Mr. Postman! Did something maybe get lost in translation there? Canada Post? Okay, just bear with me here -- was there a booger on it? I mean, I could believe it if you said Santa transported the virus on Rudolf’s very shiny nose, because, well you know, it’s moist. But in a letter from Canada? We need to talk. This is the same Canada Post who returned a letter to a Winnipeg address last October marked “insufficient postage” fully 50 YEARS after it was mailed. That letter was written before Nixon and Mao’s lunch date in 1972.

 

You can’t make this stuff up. Well, you can, but… never mind.

 

Hey wait. Run those lab results one more time and check the date on the letter. Maybe it’s the Spanish flu!

 

This week in global markets: A zero-tolerance policy response to COVID-19, declining property prices, and a flexible and accommodative central bank all set China apart from its Western counterparts. We discuss near-term prospects for its economy and considerations for investing in the volatile Chinese equity markets.

 

Regional developments: Our assessment of the recent U.S. equity market selloff; Inflationary pressures mounting in Canada; UK data clears path for Bank of England hike in February; People’s Bank of China eases again.

 

Read the full piece here: Global Insight Weekly

 

I’ve got quite a few interesting charts today:

 

Hot Turnover: The first chart (left) shows that 27-45% of the S&P 500 gets bumped off every decade or so. They’re competing for our love, so this is good.

Case in point. Tonight, after Amazon delivers your LGTV, try Googling the price of Apple on your Samsung. And with the other hand, maybe scroll Facebook between Netflix reruns.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The chart on the left, shows how the recently clogged-up shipping system has been gripping the supply chain since covid.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Scrape off the barnicles Bob! The chart below shows how the increased demand has pushed carrier earnings up since covid. ECON 101: à These profits will spur production of ships and routes, and the market will adjust in time. Note the dismal profits for several years before covid, which is why the fleet was a mess 2 years ago. Free enterprise can be beautiful

 

 

It’s winter. Ohhh, that.: The chart shows the cost of home heating hitting hard, as fossil fuel funds flowed off. For the moment, it appears that ernest envromental efforts have exceeded planning. It’s at the margins where the cost is truly born here. See above for ECON 101…

 

 

 

Pension funds the world over are more flush than they’ve been since the crisis of 2008.  Some fund managers may be inclined to reduce portfolio risk while the getting is good, but then there’s that nasty inflation thing to consider.

 

 

Tech Prices have been hurting (see chart on the left) Or is that bleeding? I’m not sure if this chart is meant to look that creepy (probably – how much fun can a chart guy have on a Friday?). Stephen King would be proud.

 

Tech Prices have been hurting (see chart above) Or is that bleeding? I’m not sure if this chart is meant to look that creepy (probably – how much fun can a chart guy have on a Friday?). Stephen King would be proud.

 

 

This time tech tickityboo: This messy ice cream cake chart shows that, unlike the 2001 bubble, tech income is creamy today (second layer from top). Profits & expectations reflect Amazon & co prices, unlike 21 years ago, when it was all a dream. Speculation is not bad at the right dose!

 

 

 

 

Enjoy your weekend!

 

Mark