January 2025

January 31, 2025 | R. Matthew Lauer


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Onward & Upward

Long rates have disconnected from short rates recently

As we step into 2025, we reflect on the pivotal shifts that may define this year’s financial landscape. A renewed focus towards long rates offers discerning investors new opportunities and reinforces the importance of strategic foresight. Long rates often viewed as a measure of economic growth expectations, have recently behaved in ways that are not aligned with current short-term rate movements set by the central bank.

With the transition of a new administration in the U.S. - an almost certain shift towards inflationary fiscal policy looms. A rising long rate environment may signal pressure on equity valuations and shifts in fixed-income markets. This provides a platform to optimize portfolios by aligning asset allocations that benefit from the changing environment. We look forward to another year of progress, partnerships, and shared success.

 

AI-Fueled Stock Rally Disturbed by Global Presence

China’s DeepSeek just pulled off an AI plot twist that wiped $1 trillion off U.S. tech stocks, sending Nvidia into a record-breaking $600 billion nosedive. The upstart’s cost-effective AI breakthrough has Silicon Valley questioning its multi-billion-dollar spending spree. Whether this is a wake-up call or the start of an AI arms race, the game has changed.

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Court Shields Widow from CRA Tax Claim in Defining Ruling

In a landmark ruling, an Alberta court has ruled that Marlene Enns is not liable for her late husband’s tax debt, affirming that marriage legally ends at death. This heartfelt story highlights the protections for beneficiaries and family estate planning.

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Tariff Shifts Are a Warning for Corporate America to Expect Whiplash

Trump’s shifting tariffs have Corporate America on edge, with over 100 executive actions creating a volatile trade landscape. Companies are rushing shipments, seeking legal counsel, and lobbying to stay ahead of unpredictable import taxes on China, Mexico, and Canada. With uncertainty mounting, businesses must prepare for ongoing trade turbulence.
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