February 2025

February 28, 2025 | R. Matthew Lauer


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Market Divergence

Sentiments Dull Over Tarrifs

An unpredictable political landscape has cultivated a rare market environment. Market research done by the University of Michigan illustrate weakening consumer sentiment against inflationary expectation. Persistent inflation concerns keep US interest rates elevated, while they decline in Canada.

Since 2020, data reveals a sharp divide in inflation forecasts, suggesting that personal outlooks are driving perception. As a result, this growing gap suggest not just differing perspectives but a deeper detachment from economic realities, where political biases increasingly shape perceptions of inflation. Adopting an objective economic lens may yield stronger conviction towards market expectations.

 

ETFs cross $1 trillion of inflows in 2024

The ETF industry has reached a historic milestone, surpassing $1 trillion in inflows as investor confidence grows and mutual funds decline. This shift underscores the broader trend of assets flowing from active mutual funds into passive ETFs, a movement that has reshaped financial markets. However, as ETFs gain dominance, concerns over the long-term impact on diminished price discovery continues to grow. The risk of market overvaluation is concerning for investors.

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Expectation for Bank of Canada’s March rate cut

Due to Ottawa’s temporary tax holiday, inflation did not reach the expected 2.5%, raising concerns for the Bank of Canada (BoC) ahead of its March 12th interest rate decision. Some warn that core inflation pressures are building, while others see inflation stabilizing. Rising tariff expectations pose further challenges on the BoC’s rate cutting plan.

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McDavid snaps overtime winner as Canada trumps United States

Canada’s 4 Nations Face-Off victory was more than a game, it was a moment of national pride. As Chantal Kreviazuk’s anthem set the tone, Canadians stood united, their quiet strength and resilience on full display. When the flag rose, it was clear — Canada doesn’t just compete; we inspire.

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Lauer Private Wealth at RBC serves as the investment office for a select group of institutions and families. The practice is centered on multi-asset portfolio management, estate structuring, and intergenerational wealth architecture.

If you enjoyed this edition of Our Insights, please feel free to connect or share, thank you for reading.

 


Works cited: Bloomberg, CBC News, ChatGPT, Financial Post