The Markets
The TSX is up 2% for the month of June and 7.9% year to date.
The S&P 500 is up 4.4% for June and 5% year to date.
The NASDAQ is up 6.1% for June and 5% year to date
Numbers as of close June 27, 2025
Here is a link to our mid-year outlook
Global Insight 2025 Midyear Outlook - RBC Wealth Management
From our Portfolio Advisory Group (as of June 26, 2025)
It has been an eventful few weeks. A significant escalation of conflict between Israel, Iran, and the U.S. culminated in a recent ceasefire. Not surprisingly, oil prices have been volatile through this period, though global equity markets have remained resilient. We discuss these developments and some other things that we will be watching as we move through the second half of the year.
The situation in the Middle East has meaningfully changed in a matter of a few weeks
The Israeli military carried out airstrikes against Iran's nuclear facilities on June 12th. Oil prices responded immediately with one of their largest moves in some time. Iran retaliated by launching a series of missile strikes at Israel and warned of further retaliation should other countries get involved. Regardless, the United States entered the fray with a series of targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran did respond with its own strikes on a U.S. military base in Qatar, but it was largely telegraphed in advance and served as more of a symbolic move than anything. A ceasefire has since been announced to what has already been dubbed the “12-day war”.
The region has a history of broken truces, and the strategic nature of the longstanding rivalry suggests this story may not be over, but rather a new chapter may be beginning. The key investment concern remains the potential risk to the oil market, as nearly 20% of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has previously threatened to disrupt this choke point, but skepticism remains given the harm any such action would inflict on itself and its largest oil customer: China.
Tariffs, the “BBB”, and the economy back on the front burner in the weeks and months to come
As we move into the summer, three issues come to mind: tariff deadlines, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and progression of the economy.
On the tariff front, two deadlines are approaching. On July 9th, the reciprocal tariffs that were lowered to 10% across a host of countries are set to expire. Meanwhile, on August 12th, the 90-day grace period that China and the U.S. had agreed to will come to an end. In theory, tariffs are set to increase meaningfully thereafter. However, there is the possibility of agreements being reached, or some extensions being offered to buy more time for negotiation. It appears that China and the U.S. have settled on some framework for an agreement, though details have not been revealed. It is hard to predict, but the strength of the global equity market suggests markets are not too concerned.
The U.S. government is working hard to try to pass the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. This Bill represents President Trump’s key piece of legislation and includes a collection of tax cut extensions and increases to military spending, among many other things. The U.S. government bond market showed some signs of concern when the initial Bill was first unveiled as markets became anxious about the potential long-term impact to the government’s budget deficit. But bond yields have since retreated, reflecting less concern or a view that meaningful changes to the Bill could be forthcoming. Either way, investors are bound to focus on this in the weeks to come.
The most important factor in the second half of the year may be the progression of economic data and corporate guidance. Markets will be watching for signs of any potential impact of higher tariffs, either through pricing pressure or slower growth. There have been some small signs here and there, but overall, there have been limited indications of a meaningful impact to the U.S. economy so far. If data continues to be resilient, the confidence in the corporate earnings outlook will rise, providing further opportunities for equities to move higher.
Returns have been surprisingly good despite the headlines
Investment returns through the first half of the year have been reasonable, which is impressive considering the circumstances. On the one hand, this has served as a reminder that despite headlines that seem concerning and unnerving, markets can be resilient and it’s important to avoid being swayed by short-term developments. On the other hand, equity markets are now trading at or near all-time highs, suggesting expectations have also risen, leaving some room for disappointment and potential weakness should the economic and earnings trajectories not unfold as positively as markets seem to be expecting. We don't want to let complacency set in, and for these reasons we continue to remain vigilant despite a renewed sense of optimism.
Wealth Management
Just for summer fun – we have a couple of book recommendations out.
This gem provides a high-level overview of several important financial topics – with a quick, snappy, and entertaining style. A well-paced, enjoyable read.
Seventeen to Millionaire by Doug Price
Target audience: Any teen or young adult looking for a crash course in the principles of financial success.
“There is a direct correlation between 1) how knowledgeable you are about your finances and 2) how wealthy you become. If you feel you are one step closer to achieving your financial goals, I’ll feel I’ve done my job.”
— Douglas Price
The Myth of the Silver Spoon by Kristin Keffeler
This book was written by an expert in the field of family wealth – and more specifically, how to ensure all members of the family thrive. This book provides a process for finding our path or passion, and “de-cluttering” to move forward in the direction we want to go.
Target audience: The “rising generation” – that is, the next generation in line to steward wealth, as well as their family members and professional advisors.
“Like the part of the iceberg that we can see, the transactional nature of money feels easy, uncomplicated, and clear. However, it is what’s beneath the murky surface – as mass of belief, identity, and unconscious relationship – that really governs our behaviours with money.”
– Kristin Keffeler
And this is not a book but a good article on AI.
An interesting read on the impact of AI based tools such as Chat GPT on our younger generation.
ChatGPT's Impact On Our Brains According to an MIT Study | TIME
In the Community
I want to share a very inspirational story; Matt Varey is a recently retired RBC Executive who was head of RBC’s Career Salesforce prior to retirement. My son Spencer is roommates with Matt’s son Brett. When Matt retired, he decided to complete a cross Canada bike ride to raise funds for T1D (Type 1 Diabetes). He started in Victoria, B.C. on May 3 and is en route to Halifax where he will finish his ride on July 3. He has raised over $473,000 to date. You can follow his journey on Linked In and here is his website.
https://breakthrought1d.akaraisin.com/ui/CoastToCoastForCures
The Whitby Chamber of Commerce hosted its Economic Breakfast in June and Mark Bayko from RBC’s Portfolio Advisory Group was the keynote speaker. Mark is always insightful and we are happy that our team is able to help this Whitby Chamber event.
Our future office build is coming along now – in 2026 our office will be moving to Des Newman Drive in Whitby (adjacent to the Hwy 412). See attached photo of the proposed build.
Team News
Our office and the TSX is closed on Tuesday July 1. The U.S. markets are closed on July 4th.
Kim is on vacation July 18 -25 - I will be here and help with any admin inquiries
Lastly, RBC Dominion Securities has been voted the highest ranking bank owned investment firm in Canada by it’s own Advisors according to 2025 Investment Executive Brokerage Report Card. Overall, the results indicate that our advisors our proud of the culture we have built.
“Our continued financial strength enables us to reinvest in our business, providing our advisors with the resources, technology, and support they need to elevate the client experience beyond traditional investment management.”
David Agnew, CEO, RBC Wealth Management Canada
I wish everyone a very Happy Canada Day!