The Global Investment Outlook

Economic data has been resilient, recession risks have diminished, and inflation has cooled sufficiently for central banks to consider cutting policy rates at some point this year. In this environment, sovereign bonds are appealing, and while stocks have surged as investors embraced the improved odds of an economic soft landing, demanding valuations in U.S. large-cap stocks may limit upside potential.

This Global Investment Outlook includes:

  • The recommended mix of cash, fixed income instruments, and equities.
  • The recommended global exposure of fixed income and equity portfolios.
  • The optimal term structure for fixed income investments.
  • The suggested sector and geographic make-up within equity portfolios.
  • The preferred exposure to major currencies.

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Fall Economic Statement 2024: Canada boosts investment appeal and the deficit deepens

Fall Economic Statement 2024: Canada boosts investment appeal and the deficit deepens

December 18, 2024 |Rachel Battaglia, Robert Hogue and Cynthia Leach
Given the political uncertainty facing Canada, the fate of many of the measures announced in the 2024 Fall Economic Statement is highly uncertain. However, the fiscal update still serves as a snapshot of where the economy is headed and how upcoming challenges...
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Bank of Canada cuts by 50 bps, signals more gradual approach to follow

Bank of Canada cuts by 50 bps, signals more gradual approach to follow

December 11, 2024 |Claire Fan
The Bottom Line: As expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut the overnight rate by another 50 bps to 3.25% on Wednesday, right to the top end of the BoC’s “neutral” range estimate (2.25% – 3.25%). Macklem’s opening statement made clear that with interest...
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Immigration cuts will help narrow Canada’s housing gap but won’t solve crisis

Immigration cuts will help narrow Canada’s housing gap but won’t solve crisis

November 04, 2024 |Robert Hogue
The drastic reduction in immigration targets announced by the federal government is one of the more consequential policy reversals in recent memory. It will sharply reduce growth in housing demand over the coming years, making it possible for Canada to...
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How Canada’s new immigration targets will impact the economy

How Canada’s new immigration targets will impact the economy

October 31, 2024 |Rachel Battaglia
The Canadian government has been under growing pressure to align the inflow of newcomers to the country with current labour market needs and infrastructure capacity—which prompted a massive reversal of the post-pandemic immigration plan set by the federal...
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BoC accelerates pace of rate cuts

October 23, 2024 |Claire Fan

The level of the overnight rate is still restrictive at 3.75% and the BoC in the press release hinted at future rate cuts will follow to support a return to stronger GDP growth.

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New listings shoot higher in most major markets

New listings shoot higher in most major markets

October 07, 2024 |Rachel Battaglia

The influx is continuing to build inventory—which is still hovering near the equivalent of four months of supply.

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Three reasons why 2024’s 2% inflation isn’t 2019’s 2%

September 25, 2024 |Frances Donald, Nathan Janzen and Abbey Xu

Canada is back at 2% inflation, but it’s too soon to pop the champagne. What’s driving prices now looks very different from before the pandemic.

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Canadian inflation pressures eased further in August

Canadian inflation pressures eased further in August

September 17, 2024 |Nathan Janzen and Abbey Xu
The slowing in year-over-year price growth to a 2.0% rate - the lowest since February 2021, and right in line with the Bank of Canada’s (BoC's) 2% inflation target - was largely driven by lower gasoline (and oil) prices but broader underlying inflation...
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Proof point: Financial returns after a post-secondary education have diminished

Proof point: Financial returns after a post-secondary education have diminished

September 12, 2024 |Rachel Battaglia and Abbey Xu

The income earned by graduates has lagged tuition growth, particularly in fields such as engineering, architecture, and related sciences.

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Bank of Canada cuts interest rate, hones in on downside risk

Bank of Canada cuts interest rate, hones in on downside risk

September 04, 2024 |Claire Fan

Growth in the third quarter is already looking to undershoot the BoC’s July forecast. We continue to expect another rate cut in October.

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