The Global Investment Outlook

Economic data has been resilient, recession risks have diminished, and inflation has cooled sufficiently for central banks to consider cutting policy rates at some point this year. In this environment, sovereign bonds are appealing, and while stocks have surged as investors embraced the improved odds of an economic soft landing, demanding valuations in U.S. large-cap stocks may limit upside potential.

This Global Investment Outlook includes:

  • The recommended mix of cash, fixed income instruments, and equities.
  • The recommended global exposure of fixed income and equity portfolios.
  • The optimal term structure for fixed income investments.
  • The suggested sector and geographic make-up within equity portfolios.
  • The preferred exposure to major currencies.

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Winter doldrums keep Canadian house prices under pressure

 March 19, 2026 |RBC Economics
Housing markets across Canada remain subdued, despite signs of stabilization in consumer confidence. Toronto and Vancouver remained at the centre of the downturn, posting the steepest price declines from a year ago alongside Fraser Valley. Demographic...
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Oil price shock: Higher US inflation could weigh on consumers

 March 11, 2026 |RBC Economics
In what follows, we outline a range of scenarios and how we’re thinking about the current oil price shock. 1. Higher oil will drive up inflation but the magnitude depends on the persistence of the shock Headline inflation has now exceeded 2% for nearly...
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Supply surge keeps Canadian house prices on a downtrend

 February 12, 2026 |Rachel Battaglia
Supply-demand conditions weakened further in most large Canadian markets as January unfolded. Potential buyers remained cautious despite elevated inventory giving them the upper hand. Severe winter weather likely contributed to the slowdown, with significant...
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Davos ’26: Making sense of a new world order

 January 28, 2026 |John Stackhouse
The World Economic Forum this year became a tale of two Davoses. Inside the main Congress Centre, a record number of attendees, including 850 CEOs, 80 tech billionaires and founders, hundreds of ministers and 65 heads of government spent the week hearing...
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Beyond the forecast: Six themes for Canada’s economy in 2026

 January 21, 2026 |RBC Economics
A narrative spun that a recession was nearly unavoidable for a country that had become so dependent on a trade partner who now looked to sever parts of its economic relationship. And yet, Canada’s economy did not collapse. There were no two quarters of...
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Early 2026 tax tips

Early 2026 tax tips

 January 07, 2026 |RBC Family Office Services
When the end of the year approaches, many individuals place a greater focus on tax planning to minimize their income tax liability. Beyond the end of the year, however, there are some areas of tax planning that often get overlooked. For example, there...
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High stakes, narrow margins: Canada’s federal budget bets on investment-led growth

 November 05, 2025 |Cynthia Leach, Robert Hogue, and Salim Zanzana
Overall, the story of Budget 2025 is as expected. There is big new spending and deficits that would be even larger without review savings. Buffers are slim against the two fiscal anchors of a balanced operating budget by 2028-29, and a declining deficit-to-GDP...
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BoC warns of structural economic damage from tariffs

 October 29, 2025 |Claire Fan
The Bank of Canada delivered an expected 25 basis point rate cut today, lowering the overnight rate to 2.25%—the bottom of the neutral range that would not add to or subtract from inflation pressures over time. Beyond the rate cut itself, two themes stood...
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Canadian federal budget preview

 October 27, 2025 |Cynthia Leach
A new playbook for balancing bigger government with fiscal health We believe the context and composition of government spending matter as much as the quantum. Cyclically, our outlook has Canada avoiding a recession from the current set of tariffs, but...
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Canada’s population growth slows even as outflows fall increasingly short of targets

 October 02, 2025 |Cynthia Leach and Salim Zanzana
Canada's population growth continues to slow since tighter federal targets on permanent and non-permanent residents with Q2 marking the weakest quarterly growth since the pandemic. As of July 2025, the population reached 41.7 million, reflecting a year-over-year...
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