New Year, New Market (Jan 9, 2019)

February 23, 2019 | Richard So


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What can we expect for January and beyond?

2018 is finally in the history books. Overall, it was not one investors would like to remember. With the S&P500 falling -14.8% in December alone, December 2018 is officially the worst ‘December’ in history (even worse than the Decembers of the great depression era 1930 & 1931). 

Even more extreme and peculiar is the fact that there was no asset class to hide in during 2018. As the chart below shows, all asset classes (except for cash) ended the year in negative territory.  That’s correct – even bonds, government treasuries, and gold, which typically perform well during stock market downturns were in the red.

This can be either incredibly depressing, or incredibly inspiring. We feel the latter. Often, when markets produce these outlier events, one should understand that we may be at an extreme level that just can’t last forever. Relief and some form of bounce back (even if it’s temporary) should be expected at these levels. We remind ourselves that patience and prudent portfolio rebalancing is typically rewarded.