2020 and Beyond (A look back)

December 29, 2021 | Gabriel Flores


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So what's in store for 2021? While I am not in the prediction business, it's difficult to see 2021 as being a more difficult year than we one we've just emerged from.

Originally the title of my first blog of the year, little did anyone know that we would have had the year we have. It was a learning experience in every sense of the term, because everyone had to adapt, plans were stress-tested, and difficult decisions had to be made.

From the perspective of the advisory practice I manage, there were several timeless lessons that have proven true to their name this year. The importance of a wealth management plan that serves as a guide to goals was underscored. Professional and active management of investments also came back into vogue this year after facing down robo-advice. The sudden and sharp drawdowns of the first quarter were shocking even to seasoned investors, yet a rebalancing strategy would have set-up investors for future gains as markets recovered. Sounds simple doesn't it? The merits of a portfolio that was well positioned going into the melt down were nowhere more apparent than when it was time to re-balance because liquidity was at a premium. Staying invested was another point that re-affirmed itself this year. For long-term investors using the recent market low as an opportunity to deploy fresh capital it was also an excellent entry point and an opportunity to 'turn back the clock' on many quality names. As compared to the Great Financial Crisis, the coordinated efforts of central banks didn't hurt either.

With the rise of web meetings, working with clients and prospective clients became efficient and comfortable, with everyone at ease in their own surroundings. Completing documentation securely via electronic signature became the standard, and the ability to connect on a moment's notice to ease a client's concerns or advise on the merits of incorporating life insurance into tax planning has become part a typical day at the office (home). Discussions that involved the aforementioned wealth plan's construction often led to clients realizing their complete household net worth and cash flow statement, where tax efficiencies could be created, and how strategies could be employed to grow and protect their assets for the future. Evolving my practice to its present form happened a lot sooner than I expected, but it has brought with it the opportunity to reach more people around the world, hear more about their stories, all the while remaining connected to the markets.

2020 was also the year that time stood still and raced a 100 miles per hour at the same time. Positioning portfolios during the pandemic (say that 3 times real quick!) proved to be a combination of employing active managers, ETFs that drew out themes in income generation, and specific sector exposure for growth. Ensuring an allocation to international and across market cap spectrums also proved important drivers of success. For the Canadian equity income investor, this year highlighted the risk of holding fossil-fuel related industries as not only did shares suffers, but the long-term viability of dividends was also called into question. Buying into the Canadian banking and life insurance sectors once it became clear that the margin of safety they had accounted for was higher than required was also a way towards the generation of a total return in a tax efficient manner. While the economic recovery will take time, especially as we remain firmly in the grips of the pandemic and the vaccine rollout cannot happen soon enough, deploying patient capital to areas that stand to benefit in the long-term represent opportunities that are also worth waiting for.

There were many themes that emerged out of 2020. The "work from home trade" and "return to work trade" were terms coined early in 2020, with technology and e-commerce companies enjoying price appreciation that reflected future earnings far in excess of what will likely be attained, but it spoke to the quick pivot that consumers had in adjusting consumption habits. Alongside investments in the biotech and pharmaceutical sectors, including the companies working on building a therapeutic platform to face future diseases, technology all along the supply chain drove returns.

Responsible Investing has also enjoyed what is likely the first of many successful years. As the global lockdown took hold, we realized the difference we had on our surroundings. Wildlife returned, the water was clearer and the air was cleaner. The 21st century definition of the essential worker emerged, and how companies behaved when the consumer needed them most was under the spotlight. The performance of responsible investments, ranging from renewable energy (and associated supply chain industries) to water management and smart grid tech was nothing short of spectacular. What's more exciting to this writer however, is that this is only the beginning of what is an investment thesis that proves itself ever truer with each passing day we do not address our collective negligence of our planet.

The global stimulus that will be required to course-correct away from certain disaster will incorporate elements of upgrading our sources of energy, reducing our carbon footprint through behaviour and technology, and regulating industries that do not yet account for their impact and pollute with abandon. Governments equate the green transition with jobs, and see the link between the health of their constituents and their environment. The sheer amount of capital investment that this area will continue to attract in the future is not fully accounted for, not because it is small, but because it is measured in the trillions.

Indeed 2020 was quite a year. I learned that as an advisor, it was essential to make data-driven decisions but present them in a manner that was relatable and personalized. Leaning on previous market experience in reflecting back on the Great Financial Crisis, my time as a bond trader, and pulling on personal experience has meant the difference to me and my clients. Receiving their kind words of thanks on guiding them through a tumultuous period has been one of the greatest rewards. The peace of mind that our working together fostered is priceless. Knowing that the time invested in each client case has led to a better outcome only serves to motivate me to reach more people and make a difference for them and their families.

So what's in store for 2021? While I am not in the prediction business, it's difficult to see 2021 as being a more difficult year than we one we've just emerged from. With the rapid development of vaccines, hope is on the way. In the US, with the incoming Biden Administration, one cannot help but feel optimistic about the restoration to a fully functional government and one that has a focus on climate change, plans to stimulate the economy and engage constructively on global trade. While it will be gradual, as the number of infections and deaths diminish with the vaccine rollout, we will once again return to a semblance of normal. We will be able to congregate once again, appreciative of what we once had in a pre-pandemic world, and emerge with an economy restructured to better face the challenges of the future. Aligning your investment with that vision and developing a wealth management strategy in consultation with a professional in the meantime, is what we need to work on together.