It’s hard to believe, but the first half of the year has come to a close. While it’s been eventful, one could argue it’s been relatively dull compared to the year ago period..and that's okay. Interest rates are still rising, but less aggressively than last year. The rate of inflation is decelerating, rather than accelerating although we find ourselves at a higher absolute level. Global economies have proved resilient, still largely growing despite what many 'so-called experts' had predicted at this time last year. Below, I share some takeaways on the year’s performance thus far and my thoughts going forward. I also provide a summary of our firm’s “Mid-Year Outlook”, which is hot off the press - I would invite you to click on the link to read it in greater detail.

Global stocks and bonds are higher year-to-date, despite the near universal concerns around the interest rate backdrop. In some cases, the returns have been modest with global bonds and Canadian equities up a few percentage points for example. In other cases, like international equities, the gains are larger. The U.S. equity market has looked strong. Yet, beneath the surface, its gains have been less compelling as the technology sector has had an outsized impact, and in particular a handful of the largest household names. In some ways it hasn’t been surprising as some of these stocks were responsible for driving much of the U.S. stock market decline last year. Regardless, it’s undoubtedly been a more pleasant investing experience for investors that remained invested thus far in 2023.

RBC's global investments team regularly produces thoughtful content to help us think about the future and assess the positioning of client portfolios. It recently produced its mid-year outlook, in which it discussed the rally in asset prices since last year’s lows. It acknowledged these trends may continue in the short-term, but also highlighted the increasing number of economic indicators that are pointing to more challenging times ahead. It remains the view that investors should be prudent and ensure they are positioned to navigate through a more difficult backdrop in the future especially as it relates to macroeconomic events and the increasing effects of climate change.

I believe the substantial amount of rate hikes of the past year will eventually wear on consumers and businesses. Wages have not kept up with the rising cost of living and combined with a drop in savings rates consumers have little wiggle room in their discretionary spending budgets. Re-evaluating the quality of the portfolio holdings, looking at the dividend yields and growth, and sector exposures are avenues worth exploring at the moment. The biggest adjustments have been in fixed income where bonds have re-emerged as a more useful tool in helping clients and their portfolios earn yield. The level of income that can be generated from bonds (especially discount bonds) today is substantially more attractive than it’s been in years, with yields that are a few percent, higher. Moreover, while inflation remains a risk, bonds can offer renewed diversification and protection for portfolios in the event the economic backdrop worsens.

I want to take the opportunity to wish you and your loved ones a happy Canada Day and a great summer.