This is the time of year when analysts, pundits and other soothsayers announce their predictions for the new year. As we kick off a new decade, the Prediction Addiction (or maybe Affliction?) has grown even stronger! I understand why: it’s fun to imagine where we’ll be at the end of a whole new decade. What will we be wearing? Driving? Eating? Listening to? Trying to teach our kids despite their eye rolls?

My “predictions” stick to the obvious: Some people will be born. Some people will become angels. The stock market will go up and down. You will spend money, sometimes on essential needs and sometimes on frivolous wants. And then you’ll pay taxes. Beyond that, I’ve yet to meet anyone with a crystal ball or time machine that works.

However, if you want some reflections from studied economists on what trends they’re seeing and what past patterns might tell us about those trends, then the RBC Wealth Management – Global Insights: 2020 Outlook is a good place to start (email me for a copy of this detailed, 30+ page report):

• “We expect central banks’ 2019 accommodative monetary policies, as well as some additional fiscal stimulus, can keep most developed economies growing through 2020 and probably longer.”
• Canada’s economy will face specific challenges in part due to elevated household leverage, strained affordability in some housing markets, and insufficient oil & gas pipeline capacity. However, RBC economists think these challenges are already reflected in stock valuation.
• They also believe that “the economic expansion and equity bull market have further to run. But alongside bullishness should come heightened cautiousness.” While the start of a US recession may be a year away or more, yellow and red flags are waving.
• The RBC outlook for stocks is positive, reported as a bullish bias. This means possible new highs and moderate returns for the coming year. This needs to be paired with the awareness that we’re late into the economic/business cycle, which is challenging for the economy. All this weighs on our nerves as investors.
• The RBC outlook for interest rates is that central banks will maintain a hold position. There may be a bias towards decreasing rather than increasing rates.
• Negative interest rates usually have the effect of pushing otherwise very conservative investors to seek out higher returning investment vehicles. Searching for higher returns means taking on greater risk.
• Conversely, anticipating the need for a bigger pile of cash to provide for future incomes, households may feel compelled to save more rather than less. I, for one, don’t think this is such a terrible thing at the micro or personal level. That said, hording cash can lead to a slowing economy if consumers stop spending en masse.

And then there are three things I know will be as true in 2020 as they were in the 20-teens:

1. We’re in a late-stage, expansive business cycle that’s the longest-lasting since World War II, which means there’s no historic precedent to look to for patterns and predictions.
2. When there are profits to be taken, I like to advise taking them. Always work with the information that is known and certain.
3. Business owners, entrepreneurs and founders -- you are the wealth creators in our economy. You are the Self Made Nation, and I dedicate my work to supporting you and your business.

And on that note, I’m planning a brand-new event for members of the Self Made Nation who are planning an exit! If you’re in the early stages of planning your exit strategy, consider joining me and Cameron Herold, former co-founding COO of 1-880-GOT JUNK for an eye-opening workshop:

Double to Sell with Cameron Herold: How to Make a Cash Rich Exit

This is advance notice to find out more and take advantage of a Super Early Bird Offer. The workshop is for business owners who want a cash-rich exit in 10 years or less. Interested? Apply for more info here.

What are you predicting for next year? Next decade? And where do you turn to for a reliable outlook? I’d love to know! Email me here: let me know who makes the most accurate predictions in your life, or to request your copy of RBC Wealth Management Global Insight 2020 Outlook.