Note that there will be no updates over the next two weeks.

Chart of the Week

While Canada continues to see high daily case counts, it currently ranks 82nd in the world in terms of cases per 100k people. Conversely, the U.S has the 8th most cases per 100k people in the world and nearly 1/4th of all global cases.

 

COVID-19 Update

 

First the bad news …

The news on the case front remains grim as we have now passed 75-million cases worldwide, which represents more than 1% of the global population, with the death toll now approaching 1.7 million. Daily new cases worldwide are exceeding 700k with ~5 million new cases per week. The U.S. remains the global leader both in case count (now approaching 18-million) and fatalities (now approaching 320k). A staggering 5.3% of the U.S. population now has a confirmed case of COVID-19, while overall the U.S. represents ~23% of worldwide cases with just ~4% of the world’s population. Collectively, the U.S., India, Russia and Brazil represent half of all global cases, despite representing less than 1/4th of global population.

As for Canada, the daily case count remains at around 8k with the overall case count now approaching 500k. The overall confirmed infection rate for Canada now exceeds 1%; although, overall, Canada continues to look much better than the U.S. with ~1,200 cases per 100k people vs. more than 5k per 100k people in the U.S. The worldwide figure is ~1k cases per 100k of population.

 

Now the good news …

The Pfizer vaccine is now being administered, while soon the Moderna vaccine will join the fight. It is undoubtedly going to be a challenging few months as a combination of widespread virus and colder weather likely keep case counts relatively high, but there is a very bright light at the end of the tunnel. Estimates suggest that everyone who wants to be vaccinated in Canada will likely be able to do so by the end of the September. Warmer Spring weather should help to bring case counts down, but with further lockdowns imminent (Quebec just announced a new round of lockdowns), we will all just need to be vigilant for a few months more.

 

Economic Update

As we discussed on our Look Ahead call, the economic data has been a mixed bag as the rise in case counts and the concurrent lockdowns have slowed some of the momentum. We expect this to continue into the first quarter of 2021 with a resurgence in the Spring as vaccinations become more widespread, the weather warms and the economy begins to normalize. Overall, we continue to expect growth of around 4% for Canada and worldwide in 2021, which would be the highest levels in a decade.

 

Market Update

After a strong November, the market has been relatively flat for the month of December, carving out small gains. The market appears to remain optimistic about the incoming Biden administration with some caution because of the upcoming Georgia run-off election that will determine control of the Senate. The Senate currently stands at 50-48 in favor of the GOP with two run-off elections to take place on January 6th. The Dems need to win both run-offs to gain a 50/50 edge as Kamala Harris would cast the tiebreaking vote in such a scenario, whereas the GOP simply needs a split to retain control. To be honest, I think the market will react positively either way, as a Dem win would probably give a boost to things, such as infrastructure, whereas as a GOP win would likely feed into the current narrative that split government is better for markets. While there may be some fears that a Dem win could mean higher taxes, I think there are enough moderate Dems who would resist such a move that higher taxes would be unlikely.

 

Final Thoughts

As we close the door on 2020, we see brighter times ahead. We wish everyone the happiest and healthiest of New Years and look forward to much good news in the coming year. If there is anything you need over the next couple of weeks, one of myself or Ann-Marie will be available (best to send an email and we will call you back). As a reminder, things such as RIF payments scheduled to be paid out in the first few days of January may be delayed due to banks being closed for the holidays. As well, RRIF withdrawal totals for the coming year can take a couple of weeks to arrive, so please be patient as some things are beyond our control.

Matt & Ann-Marie