Thoughts on the Market

U.S. stocks powered through tariff turbulence on the way to all-time highs. But it’s only natural to question whether the three-year winning streak can be extended. We look at what drove equities in 2025 and how prospects for 2026 are shaping up.

The rally in 2025 and throughout the longer bull market cycle has been uneven with the largest of large-cap stocks dominating. Key charts illustrate this phenomenon, and we discuss how to factor this into portfolio strategies.

The longstanding relationship between the U.S. and Europe is changing, with deep consequences for the euro area and its economy. We look into the impact of this metamorphosis on the corporate sector and discuss the related investment opportunities.

The White House has made broad interpretations of existing legislative authority to make unilateral policy moves. We examine how this centralized ad hoc decision-making raises structural concerns and how the economic policy framework may evolve.

The greenback’s volatile year underscores the interplay between cyclical drivers and longer-term valuation challenges—factors that could have implications for global equity leadership.

We’re increasingly of the view that a series of disruptions are masking a very real cyclical U.S. economic slowdown underneath the surface.

Overall, the story of Budget 2025 is as expected. There is big new spending and deficits that would be even larger without review savings. Buffers are slim against the two fiscal anchors of a balanced operating budget by 2028-29, and a declining deficit-to-GDP...

The S&P 500 has remained impressively resilient from a technical perspective. But we think some areas of the market are bottoming, supporting our belief that investors should consider rebalancing portfolios.

The scorecard indicators remain mixed, including a shift in the yield curve indicator. The government shutdown has limited employment data, confirming a cautious investment approach is needed, as ongoing policy and trade shifts affect the economy.