Inflation vs. Productivity

Inflation vs. Productivity

May 13, 2024 - Maddy Bodden

Over the last six months, the global stock markets have moved higher as inflation fell and the prospect of declining interest rates grew closer. Now that US inflation has increased slightly at the end of March to 3.5%, we have seen the market have impatient sell offs in April as the number of projected rate cuts has dropped. What is seemingly being ignored at the moment is the ongoing strength of the US economy and the productivity gains being made. This month, we will examine Secretary Yellen’s comments and consider their implications for both the US economy and the stock market.

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The Little Engine That Does

The Little Engine That Does

March 1, 2024 - Maddy Bodden

In the children’s story “The Little Engine that could”, a small train climbs a large hill because it believes in itself. Based on population, the US represents only 4.23% of the world, yet it has become the economic engine that pulls the world’s markets behind it.

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On the Road in 2024

On the Road in 2024

January 17, 2024 - Maddy Bodden

With his 1957 novel “On the Road”, Jack Kerouac helped launch the Beat Generation. His stream of consciousness style and focus on independent thought and action made him an icon of his generation. In the investment world, popular opinion definitely drives the market, but it is independent thought and willingness to consider all factors that lead to better decision making and results. This month, we will consider the recent dramatic swing in market direction with an objective eye to determine what warning signs are on our investment road to investment success in 2024.

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Powell and the Three Bears

Powell and the Three Bears

November 24, 2023 - Maddy Bodden

In the real economy, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell first faced inflation that was too cold for many years, then too hot through Covid and now seems to be coming in at a more normal level. Powell used a historic rise in interest rates as well as reducing the money supply through sales of the government’s Treasury bond holdings. The market has been waiting to see if the Fed can get inflation down while engineering a Goldilocks soft landing for the US economy that avoids a recession. This month, we will look at the three bears: inflation, interest rates and the US economy, to see how close Chairman Powell is to getting things just right.

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Value Investing and the Markets

Value Investing and the Markets

October 11, 2023 - Maddy Bodden

When the markets get as choppy as they have this year, investors turn to value investments to be defensive but in a rising interest rate environment, even these investments have shown weakness. By definition, value stocks tend to pay higher dividends and are in stable industries that can weather a recession. However, there is a deeper meaning to value stocks than just the ordinary definition and this month, we will explore the intrinsic value of stocks in the particular context of today’s market.

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figure

Obvious Facts and the Stock Market

August 31, 2023 - Christopher E. O'Connor

In great mystery novels, the author lays out the clues, both real and false, and the reader is left to follow along as best they can. The plot often turns on facts that are deemed obvious but mean something different when viewed in a different light.

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Hand holding a glass sphere.

Perception vs. Reality in Investing

June 15, 2023 - Cooper W. Frank

May was a tough month for stock markets as fear of a U.S. debt ceiling crisis and a small increase in the U.S. Consumer Price Index kept buyers on the sidelines...

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illustration person pulling wagon with shopping bag, dollar sign and house.

It Takes Two

June 15, 2023 - Cooper W. Frank

It’s a popular start to many quotes and a catchy hook in some popular songs but at this moment in market history...

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Unintended consequences

The Fed and Unintended Consequences

March 29, 2023 - Trevor Cooper

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and its Chairman Jerome Powell have had a very difficult time over the last three years...

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Uncertain times

Signs of improvement in Uncertain Times

February 21, 2023 - Trevor Cooper

While market and economic conditions have been improving since October, a vocal majority of analysts and economists...

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Probabilities for 2023

Probabilities for 2023

January 1, 2023 - Trevor Cooper

George Soros built his hedge fund fortune by investing in the most likely probabilities for stocks based on the existing market...

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The Value of Uncertainty

The Value of Uncertainty

December 1, 2022 - Trevor Cooper

Uncertainty in any aspect of our lives leads to doubt and worry, often leaving one frozen in a state of mental paralysis until a path...

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The Intelligent Investor in Volatile Markets

The Intelligent Investor in Volatile Markets

November 1, 2022 - Trevor Cooper

Benjamin Graham wrote the book “The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing,” but his comment on...

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